This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8260 (+149 or +1.84%)
The AU200 has shown a strong upward move this week, rising significantly by 149 points from 8111 to 8260.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Tue 11:30 – AUD Building Permits MoM (Nov)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8281. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8301, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8322 and potentially 8363.
If we cannot close above 8239, we could see a move back to test 8218 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8197, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8156.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 19951 (+28 or +0.14%)
The DAX30 shows a weak upward trend this week, with a small move from 19,923 to 19,951 indicating minimal momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Tue 20:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Wed 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5952. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5968, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5982 and potentially 6008.
If we cannot close above 5924, we could see a move back to test 5908 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5893, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5864.
US
S&P 500 – 5938 (-13 or -0.22%)
The US500 has shown a weak downward trend this week, with a moderate decline from 5951 to 5938.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 05:15 – USD Fed Daly Speech
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5952. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5967, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5981 and potentially 6008.
If we cannot close above 5924, we could see a move back to test 5909 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5894, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5867.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6221 (-31 or -0.5%)
The AUDUSD is trending slightly lower this week, reflecting a modest bearish move with a minor decline from the previous level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Tue 11:30 – AUD Building Permits MoM (Nov)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM (Nov)
Mon 05:15 – USD Fed Daly Speech
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6236. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6252, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6268 and potentially 0.6299.
If we cannot close above 0.6205, we could see a move back to test 0.6190 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6174, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6143.
EUR/USD – 1.0314 (-117 or -1.12%)
EURUSD is trending lower with a moderate decline from 1.0431 to 1.0314, signaling continued bearish momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Tue 20:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Wed 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (Nov)
Mon 05:15 – USD Fed Daly Speech
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0346. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0378, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0405 and potentially 1.0439.
If we cannot close above 1.0289, we could see a move back to test 1.0261 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0234, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0180.
GBP/USD – 1.2432 (-134 or -1.07%)
The GBPUSD is trending weakly, with a significant move down of 1.03%, indicating possible further downside momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Tue 11:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Dec)
Tue 18:00 – GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (Dec)
Mon 05:15 – USD Fed Daly Speech
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2458. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2484, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2510 and potentially 1.2571.
If we cannot close above 1.2406, we could see a move back to test 1.2380 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2354, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2301.
USD/JPY – 157.69 (+125 or +0.8%)
The USDJPY shows strong upward momentum, with a significant move from 156.44 to 157.69, indicating bullish strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – JPY Jibun Bank Services PMI (Dec)
Wed 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Dec)
Mon 05:15 – USD Fed Daly Speech
Tue 01:45 – USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.61. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.53, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.45 and potentially 162.12.
If we cannot close above 156.78, we could see a move back to test 155.86 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 154.94, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 153.07.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2640 (+17 or +0.65%)
The XAUUSD is trending upwards with a moderate move, gaining 17 points this week, indicating a mild bullish shift.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2646. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2652, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2658 and potentially 2665.
If we cannot close above 2634, we could see a move back to test 2628 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2623, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2610.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 95288 (-9031 or -8.66%)
BTC/USD shows strong bullish momentum with a significant move up of over 3,000 points this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 99192. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 99384, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 99576 and potentially 99785.
If we cannot close above 99192, we could see a move back to test 98990 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 98808, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 98599.
