This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6569 ( +123 or +1.91% )
The ASX is pushing up against important highs and the stage is set for further continuation.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6550. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6682, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6804.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6550, we will look for a move back down to 6500. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest of 6435, and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6276.
EUROPE
DAX – 13129 ( +11 or +0.08% )
The DAX was virtually unchanged last week and as such our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:30 – German Flash, Manufacturing PMI
Wed 20:00 – ECB Financial Stability Review
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 13050. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move back up into 13266, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13520.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13050, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12266.
US
SP500 – 3555 ( -31 or -0.86% )
The S&P is also range bound and all eyes will be on these markets going into another important week. We will be discussing the impact of this this week in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in the US (Thanksgiving Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI
Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 00:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Thu 02:00 – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Thu 06:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3560. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3620. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3650; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3733.
If we cannot close above 3560, we could see this market move lower into 3498. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3395; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3300 and 3274.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7304 ( +36 or +0.5% )
Despite finishing the week higher, the Aussie Dollar also remained sideways. Can this market break higher from here? We will be discussing this market this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – Private Capex (quarterly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7282. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7364, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7447 and 0.7489 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7282, we will look for this market to break lower through 0.7197. A break and close below this level could see a sharp decline into 0.7112; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.7014.
EUR/USD – 1.1858 ( +26 or +0.22% )
The Euro is at very important resistance now having remained at these levels for four months now. Will we see some surprises this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
Thu 20:00 – ECB Financial Stability Review
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1834. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1925. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1950; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2042 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1834, we could see a fast move down into 1.1738 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1678, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1613 and 1.1553.
GBP/USD – 1.3287 ( +88 or +0.67% )
The Pound is grinding higher having held the all important 1.3161 and then 1.3200.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:30 – Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
Tue 02:30 – Monetary Policy Report Hearings
Wednesday All day – Autumn Forecast Statement
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3277, followed by a move higher into 1.3410 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3550.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3277, we could see a move back down to 1.3161. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3035 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.2867.
USD/JPY – 103.83 ( -78 or -0.75% )
The YEN is down again and the story this week will be how participants react to key levels down here.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 103.80. Should this occur we will look for a push into 105.50, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move higher to 106.92.
If we cannot hold above 103.80, we could see another move back down into 103.21. A break below this level may result in further downside to 102.80; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 100.65.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1870 ( -19 or -1.01% )
Gold continues to find support down at 1850 and this is the level to watch this week. We will be discussing this market further in the MEMBER PORTAL.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1850. Should this occur we would then need to see a strong break back above through 1900. Should this occur we could see further upside into 1920and 1950.
If Gold cannot hold above 1850, we will look for a move back down to 1830. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1800; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1786.
