This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7150 (-142 or -1.95%)
The DAX is moving into a tight range bound market. What will the catalyst be to start the next move?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Consumer Confidence
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7153. Should this occur, a move above 7196 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7221 and 7269.
Failure to close above 7153 means a potential move into 7112. 7093 is the next support level down if 7112 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7093.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 15753 (-105 or -0.66%)
The DAX is moving into a tight range bound market. What will the catalyst be to start the next move?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 22:15 – EUR ECB Rate Decision
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 15748. Should this occur, then 15849 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 15953 and 16000 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15748, we will look for a move into support at 15600. A strong break and close below this handle and 15396 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15243 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4468 (-52 or -1.15%)
The SPX has closed lower this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – USD Inflation rate
Wed 22:30 – USD CPI
Thur 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4462. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4480. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4518 and 4614.
If we cannot hold above 4462, we could see this market move down into 4412 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4339. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4245.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6389 (-69 or -1.07%)
AUDUSD is currently in a multi week down trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Consumer Confidence
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Wed 22:30 – USD Inflation rate
Wed 22:30 – USD CPI
Thur 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6389. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6426. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6457. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6500 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6389 we could see a move down to 0.6377. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6327, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6274.
EUR/USD – 1.0711 (-67 or -0.62%)
The EURUSD closed below its weekly lows. Will the downtrend pressure continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 22:15 – EUR ECB Rate Decision
Wed 22:30 – USD Inflation rate
Wed 22:30 – USD CPI
Thur 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.071. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.075. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.080 and 1.094.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.071, we will see a move into 1.063. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.057, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.051.
GBP/USD – 1.2484 (-117 or -0.93%)
GBPUSD has moved lower this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – GBP Unemployment Rate
Wed 22:30 – USD Inflation rate
Wed 22:30 – USD CPI
Thur 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2485 before a break higher into 1.2540. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2579. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2659 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2485, we will look for a move down to 1.2433. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2346 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2243.
USD/JPY – 146.89 (+77 or +0.53%)
The USDJPY closed slightly higher this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – USD Inflation rate
Wed 22:30 – USD CPI
Thur 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 146.09. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 147.59, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.06 and potentially 148.92.
If we cannot close above 146.09, we could see a move back to test 144.79 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.95, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.98.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1919 (-26 or -1.34%)
GOLD is down over 1% this past week, losing its previous weeks gain.
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1919. Should this occur we could see a move into 1926; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1944. If momentum is strong, then 1981 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1919, we can see a move down to 1892. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1866 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1856.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 25697 (-257 or -0.99%)
Bitcoin is showing a flat spot in the markets, causing a tight range to occur.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 26000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 27000 before retesting 28000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 30000.
Failure to close above 26000 could see a move into 25000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 23000. A close below this level and 22000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
