This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8236 (-24 or -0.29%)
The AU200 showed a moderate bearish trend, declining by 24 points this week, signalling steady downward pressure.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Dec)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8256. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8277, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8297 and potentially 8339.
If we cannot close above 8216, we could see a move back to test 8195 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8175, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8133.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 20252 (+301 or +1.51%)
The DE30 shows a strong bullish trend, with a notable upward move of 301 points, signalling solid upward momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:30 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Wed 19:00 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Thu 20:00 – EUR Full Year GDP Growth (2025)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 20297. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 20353, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 20408 and potentially 20504.
If we cannot close above 20207, we could see a move back to test 20151 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 20096, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 19999.
US
S&P 500 – 5819 (-119 or -2%)
The US500 shows a weak bearish trend this week, with a moderate decline from 5938 to 5819, signalling downside momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Fri 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5833. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5848, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5862 and potentially 5889.
If we cannot close above 5804, we could see a move back to test 5789 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5774, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5746.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6143 (-78 or -1.25%)
The AUD/USD chart is trending downward with a moderate move, signalling continued bearish momentum in the market this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jan)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Dec)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Dec)
Wed 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Fri 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6158. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6174, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6190 and potentially 0.6217.
If we cannot close above 0.6128, we could see a move back to test 0.6112 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6097, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6069.
EUR/USD – 1.0241 (-73 or -0.71%)
The EUR/USD shows a moderate bearish trend with a notable move lower, dropping from 1.0314 to 1.0241.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:30 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Wed 19:00 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Thu 20:00 – EUR Full Year GDP Growth (2025)
Wed 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Fri 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0271. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0292, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0313 and potentially 1.0361.
If we cannot close above 1.0211, we could see a move back to test 1.0190 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0169, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0112.
GBP/USD – 1.2200 (-232 or -1.87%)
The GBPUSD shows a strong bearish move, dropping 232 points, indicating significant downside momentum this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 18:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Thu 18:00 – GBP GDP MoM (Nov)
Thu 18:00 – GBP Goods Trade Balance (Nov)
Wed 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Fri 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2225. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2250, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2275 and potentially 1.2325.
If we cannot close above 1.2175, we could see a move back to test 1.2150 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2125, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2075.
USD/JPY – 157.76 (+7 or +0.04%)
The USDJPY shows a slight bullish trend, with a small move of just 0.07, indicating weak momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:50 – JPY Current Account (Nov)
Wed 00:30 – USD PPI MoM (Dec)
Thu 00:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)
Fri 00:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Dec)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.03. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.30, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.53 and potentially 158.97.
If we cannot close above 157.49, we could see a move back to test 157.00 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.47, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.76.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2689 (+49 or +1.86%)
Strong bullish move this week for XAUUSD, rising 49 points to 2689, showing notable upside momentum and strength.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2702. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2726, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2751 and potentially 2801.
If we cannot close above 2702, we could see a move back to test 2677 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2652, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2611.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 93915 (-5168 or -5.22%)
Bitcoin is showing a moderate bearish trend with a notable decline of 5.2%, suggesting weakening momentum this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 99192. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 99384, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 99576 and potentially 99785.
If we cannot close above 99192, we could see a move back to test 98990 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 98808, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 98599.
