This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6806 ( +121 or +1.81% )
The ASX has broken out of its sideways range but can it maintain this push higher? We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday in Australia (Australia Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:30 – CPI (quarterly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6804. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6850, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6960.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6804, we will look for a move back down to 6682. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest of 6550, and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6500.
EUROPE
DAX – 13875 ( +109 or +0.79% )
The DAX continues to trade sideways as we again enter a very important week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:45 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tue 02:15 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 13800. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move up into 14210, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 14450.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13800, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 13050. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 13520; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 13266.
US
SP500 – 3837 ( +84 or +2.24% )
The S&P posted new all time highs as this market marches closer to 4000.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 01:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 05:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thu 23:30 – Advance GDP (quarterly)
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3850. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3900; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3930.
If we cannot close above 3850, we could see this market move lower into 3780. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3733; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3694.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7714 ( +12 or +0.16% )
The Aussie Dollar was flat last week and we are on alert for a breakout this week.
NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday in Australia (Australia Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:30 – CPI (quarterly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7662. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7750, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7823 and 0.7997 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7662, we will look for this market to break lower through 0.7617. A break and close below this level could see a sharp decline into 0.7550; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.7489.
EUR/USD – 1.2171 ( +96 or +0.8% )
The Euro posted a better week on the back of positive European developments relating to COVID.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:45 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tue 02:15 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2120. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.2256. A break of this level could see this market rally further and if momentum is very strong, we would be on the lookout for a move to 1.2300.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.2120, we could see a fast move down into 1.2002 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1980, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1925.
GBP/USD – 1.3682 ( +98 or +0.72% )
Cable is testing a very big area here and we are watching this market closely. We will be discussing this exclusively in our MEMBER PORTAL.
For a move to the upside now, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3534, before a break higher through 1.3743. If this market can hold above this level we may then see a strong push into 1.3875 before another pause. A break through this level sets Cable up for a move up to 1.4041.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3534, we will look for a move down to 1.3410. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3277 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3161.
USD/JPY – 103.76 ( -12 or -0.12% )
The YEN remained flat and as such our levels remain the same this week.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close strongly above 103.80. Should this occur we will look for a push into 105.50, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move higher to 106.92.
If we cannot hold above 103.80, we could see another move back down into 103.21. A break below this level may result in further downside to 102.80; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 100.65.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1856 ( +29 or +1.59% )
Gold is again finding support at these levels. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1850. Should this occur we would then need to see a strong break back above through 1900. Should this occur we could see further upside into 1920; and if momentum is very strong we may see a retest of 1950.
If Gold cannot hold above 1850, we will look for a move back down to 1830. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1800; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1750 and 1726.
