This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7229 (+137 or +1.93%)
The ASX is trading in the upper levels of its current range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales MoM
Thur 11:30 – Balance of Trade
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7393.15. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7459.45, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7525.75 and potentially 7642.25.
If we cannot close above 7058.55, we could see a move back to test 7162.95 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7229.25, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7316.25.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 16180 (+331 or +2.09%)
The DAX is holding its ground near the all time highs, will it make a higher high this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 16:00 – Balance of Trade
Wed 17:55 – HCOB Services PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 16519.5. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 16958, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17396.5 and potentially 18257.5.
If we cannot close above 15841.5, we could see a move back to test 15403 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15064.5, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 14203.5.
US
S&P 500 – 4456 (+97 or +2.23%)
The SPX uptrend is making higher highs each week following the trends of the bigger stocks
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Thur 04:00 – FOMC Minutes
Thur 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Payrolls
Fri 22:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 4467.4. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 4493.2, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 4520.8 and potentially 4581.
If we cannot close above 4444.4, we could see a move back to test 4418.8 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4383.4, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4324.5.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6657 (-26 or -0.39%)
Currently trading in the middle of its 6 month range, AUD and USD are in for a busy week with US Unemployment numbers and AUD Interest rate change.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Wed 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales MoM
Thur 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.66722. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6704, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.67347 and potentially 0.68137.
If we cannot close above 0.66388, we could see a move back to test 0.6607 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.65723, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.64868.
EUR/USD – 1.0909 (+3 or +0.03%)
Currently range bound with a busy week of news. Could volatility increase and see the range broken?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.09274. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.09545, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0981 and potentially 1.1043.
If we cannot close above 1.08805, we could see a move back to test 1.08534 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.08113, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.06848.
GBP/USD – 1.2697 (-37 or -0.29%)
The Pound continues to be strong against the USD with the average price moving up.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.272. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.276, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2803 and potentially 1.2882.
If we cannot close above 1.2669, we could see a move back to test 1.262 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2568, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2495.
USD/JPY – 144.38 (+81 or +0.56%)
The Yen continues to be the weakest against the USDollar. With a busy week of news will we see the trend continue into new heights?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 04:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Thur 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Non Farm Payrolls
Fri 22:30 – USD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.72. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 145.07, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 145.41 and potentially 145.92.
If we cannot close above 144.03, we could see a move back to test 143.68 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.24, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.74.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1917 (-9 or -0.47%)
After breaking the all time highs, Gold has been retreating to the downside. Will upcoming global events keep the uptrend moving?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1922.95. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1929.9, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1936.85 and potentially 1952.25.
If we cannot close above 1913.05, we could see a move back to test 1906.1 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1899.15, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1874.75.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 30599 (+381 or +1.26%)
Anticipation and speculation of the Blackrock ETF is causing an increased interest in Bitcoin, but will the SEC approve?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 30673.97. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 30749.95, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 30825.93 and potentially 31077.37.
If we cannot close above 30524.03, we could see a move back to test 30448.05 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 30372.07, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 30173.93.
