This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7673 (+37 or +0.48%)
With the RBA Meeting on Tuesday, the ASX is sitting at its all time highs, will the momentum continue?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 09:00 – AUD Bank PMI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7869. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8046, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8222 and potentially 9603.
If we cannot close above 7480, we could see a move back to test 7293 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7107, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6921.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 17065(+104 or +0.61%)
The DAX closed above it’s all time highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 20:00 – EUR PMI
Thu 21:00 – EUR CPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17409. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17944, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18478 and potentially 19447.
If we cannot close above 16721, we could see a move back to test 16286 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15852, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 15317.
US
S&P 500 – 4999 (-28 or -0.56%)
After breaking the milestone level of $5,000 the US500 has seen a slight pause.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5112. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5249, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5374 and potentially 6123.
If we cannot close above 4886, we could see a move back to test 4763 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4638, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4374.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6532(+8 or +0.12%)
AUDUSD has found support at 0.648, will we see a breakout to upside or a continuation of momentum to the downside? Fundamentals this week could be the decider.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 09:00 – AUD Bank PMI
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.655. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.658, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.661 and potentially 0.668.
If we cannot close above 0.651, we could see a move back to test 0.646 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.640, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.631.
EUR/USD – 1.0779 (-15 or -0.14%)
EURUSD has formed a very wide range bound market. What will the catalyst be to move forward out of this area?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 20:00 – EUR PMI
Thu 21:00 – EUR CPI
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.080. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.083, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.086 and potentially 1.092.
If we cannot close above 1.075, we could see a move back to test 1.072 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.068, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.063.
GBP/USD – 1.2603 (-31 or -0.25%)
GBPUSD has formed an interesting flat resistance area at 1.280. Will this level hold the line?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 06:00 – GBP PMI
Fri 11:00 – GBP Consumer Confidence
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2633. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2668, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2702 and potentially 1.2778.
If we cannot close above 1.2579, we could see a move back to test 1.2545 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2510, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2448.
USD/JPY – 150.05 (+88 or +0.59%)
USDJPY is moving higher each week, will the momentum break into multi year highs?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:50 – JPY Balance of Trade
Thu 06:00 – USD FOMC Minutes
Fri 00:30 – USD Continuing Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 153.93. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.56, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 161.18 and potentially 167.56.
If we cannot close above 146.18, we could see a move back to test 142.56 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 138.93, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 131.18.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2013 (-11 or -0.54%)
Gold idropped early in the week but has recovered most of its earlier losses.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2018. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2034, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2051 and potentially 2077.
If we cannot close above 2008, we could see a move back to test 1993 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1975, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1926.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 52280 (+4080 or +8.46%)
BTCUSD is up 8% this week and 13% the week prior. Will this continue?
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 53594. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 54870, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 56146 and potentially 59490.
If we cannot close above 51066, we could see a move back to test 49890 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 48614, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 45968.
