This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6997 ( +147 or +2.15% )
The ASX finally got a break higher after weeks of consolidation, are we set for a run at all time highs now? We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11.30 NAB Business Confidence
Thurs 11.30 Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold 6969. Should this occur, a long term gap fill could be in play at 7091. A run at all time high’s then can’t be ruled out at 7202.
Failure to hold 6969 means a potential move back into the previous range resistance of 6850. 6804 is the next support level down if 6850 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 6682.
EUROPE
DAX – 15228 ( +19 or +0.12% )
The DAX saw it’s recent strong upside momentum come to a slowdown last week and ended flat. Our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 19:00 – EU Retail Sales m/m
Thurs 00:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For the DAX to continue its move higher we first want to see it hold 15048. A breakthrough 15345 and 15585 is the next technical level ahead. If upside momentum really takes hold then 15782 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should 15048 not hold, we will look for a move into support at 14990. A strong break and close below this handle and 14790 is the next leg down. If downside pressure mounts then 14578 cannot be ruled out.
US
SP500 – 4125 ( +87 or +2.15% )
The S&P continued to move higher ahead of Q1 earnings week kicks off this week, we will be discussing throughout the week in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
Thu 02:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 22.30 – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 4155. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4200, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves back up to 4251.
If we cannot close above 4155, we could see this market move lower into 4117. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4050, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4000.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7617 ( +10 or +0.13% )
The Aussie dollar remained sideways again last week and so our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11.30 NAB Business Confidence
Thurs 11.30 Unemployment Rate
For a move higher this week we would like to see a close above 0.7660. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7729. Overhead, 0.7823 is the next area we could see a move into with an extreme move to 0.7997 not being ruled out if upside momentum is strong..
A retest of the double bottom level of 0.7562 also can’t be ruled out, with a break and close below this handle signifying a potential sell-off into 0.7500. A continued move lower into 0.7423 is in play if we close below the 75c level.
EUR/USD – 1.1901 (+141 or +8.01% )
The Euro posted its strongest week since November although is now facing big trend resistance overhead.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 19:00 – Europe Retail Sales m/m
Thurs 00:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1925. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.2000. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.12042; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2112 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1925, we could see a fast move down into 1.1834 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1738, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1678.
GBP/USD – 1.3702 ( -126 or -0.91% )
Cable was the weakest of the $ crosses last week despite holding onto important support levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – GDP m/m
For a move to the upside now, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3755, before a break higher through 1.3865. If this market can hold above this level we may then see a strong push into 1.4000 before another pause. A break through this level sets Cable up for a move up to 1.4250.
Should we fail to close above 1.3755, we will look for a move down to 1.3666. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3534 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3410.
USD/JPY – 109.66 ( +49 or +0.47% )
The $/YEN saw a pullback following recent strength but managed to trade within some key technical levels. We will be discussing what this means in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 9:50 – JPY PPI y/y
Tue 22:30 – U.S. CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
Thu 02:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 22.30 – U.S. Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 110.38 and potentially 111.26.
If we cannot hold above 109.68, we could see a move lower into 109.21 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 108.60, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 105.50.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1744 ( +14 or +0.81% )
Gold has bounced but is it enough for a bottom to be in place? We will discuss this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1755. Should this occur we could see a move into 1786, and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1814.
If Gold cannot close above 1755, we will look for a move back down to 1700. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1687, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1674.
BITCOIN – 59633 ( +978 or +1.67% )
Bitcoin had a relatively quiet week after struggling to gather enough momentum to break through the 60000 handle – and has failed to hold this level over the weekend.
For a move into all-time highs, we must first see a close above 60000. Should we get this then our next upside targets are 62500 and 67115?
Failure to get that close above 60000 again could see a move back down into 57290. A close below this level and 49519 can’t be ruled out.
