This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7324 (+31 or +0.43%)
The ASX closed the week slightly higher despite mainly sideways price action and our levels remain unchanged. We will be discussing what is next in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thurs 11:30 – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7272. Should this occur, a move back into 7400 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7500.
Failure to hold above 7272 means a potential move back into 7202. 7091 is the next support level down if 6969 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 6850.
EUROPE
DAX – 15696 (+44 or +0.28%)
Another relatively flat week for the DAX, as such our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 16:00 – CPI M/m and Y/y
Fri 19:00 – Core CPI – EU
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it hold above 15585. Should this occur then 15782 is the next technical level ahead. If upside momentum really takes hold then 16000 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15585, we will look for a move into support at 15345. A strong break and close below this handle and 15050 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 14990 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4375 (+29 or +0.67%)
Another weekly close at all-time highs as the US Markets continue to lead the way.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Core CPI M/m
Weds 22:30 – Core PPI M/m
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales M/m
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 4375. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4400; if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4422 and 4450.
If we cannot close above 4375, we could see this market move down into 4300. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4250, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4200.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7488 (-37 or -0.49%)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thurs 11:30 – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
Previous lows are taken out as the Aussie Dollar starts to take a downwards direction – we will be discussing this inside our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7500. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7560 where we may see a pause. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7729.
If this market cannot close above 0.7500, we could see a move back down into 0.7423. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7343, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7250.
EUR/USD – 1.1877 (+11 or +0.09%)
A completely flat week for the Euro so our levels remain unchanged. We will be discussing this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 19:00 – Core CPI – EU
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1925. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.2000 before a pause. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2052; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2100 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1925, we could see a move into 1.1833. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1738, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1615.
GBP/USD – 1.3898 (+66 or +0.48%)
The Cable closed the week higher and with the UK going ahead with a full economic reopening, could this market lead to the recovery against the Dollar?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 16:00 – Core CPI Y/y & M/m
Thurs 16:00 – Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3865 before a break higher through 1.4000. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.4125.
Should we fail to close above 1.3865, we will look for a move down to 1.3755. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3666 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3620.
USD/JPY – 110.10 (-93 or -0.84%)
Channel structure and key support broken as rare flow went into the JPY. We will be discussing what this could mean further in our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – Core CPI M/m
Weds 22:30 – Core PPI M/m
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales M/m
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.0. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 111.70, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 112.25 and potentially 113.18.
If we cannot hold above 111.0, we could see a move back to test 110.38 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 109.68; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 109.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1807 (+21 or +1.18%)
A third weekly gain in a row as Gold bulls look to recover after the recent drastic sell-off.
For a continued move higher we need to see this market hold above 1786. Should this occur we need to see a move through 1814; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1850. If momentum is really strong then 1875 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1786, we will look for a move back down to 1756. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1720, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1700.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 33981 (-1502 or -4.23%)
Bitcoin struggled to get above a key mid-range level last week as sellers look to keep control. However, downside support levels continue to hold.
For a move higher we must now see this market close above 35000. Should this occur we could see a move into 40000 before retesting 42000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 50000.
Failure to close above 35000 could see a move down to the lows around 30000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 25700. A close below this level and 19000 can’t be ruled out.
