This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7744 (-50 or -0.64%)
The AU200 has shown a weak downward trend, dropping by 50 points from 7794 to 7744 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7763. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7782, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7801 and potentially 7839.
If we cannot close above 7724, we could see a move back to test 7705 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7686, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7648.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18398 (+174 or +0.96%)
The DAX has shown a strong upward trend, rising by 174 points from 18203 to 18377 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Jun)
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
Fri 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18443. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18492, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18541 and potentially 18638.
If we cannot close above 18353, we could see a move back to test 18304 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18255, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18158.
US
S&P 500 – 5480 (+2 or +0.04%)
The US500 has shown a slight upward trend, edging higher by 2 points from 5478 to 5480 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5493. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5506, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5519 and potentially 5545.
If we cannot close above 5467, we could see a move back to test 5454 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5438, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5414.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6667 (+29 or +0.44%)
The AUDUSD has shown a moderate upward trend, rising by 29 pips from 0.6636 to 0.6665 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 11:30 – AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 11:30 – AUD Balance of Trade (May)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6684. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6700, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6717 and potentially 0.6750.
If we cannot close above 0.6650, we could see a move back to test 0.6633 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6617, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6583.
EUR/USD – 1.0756 (+68 or +0.64%)
The EURUSD has shown a strong upward trend, rising by 68 pips from 1.0688 to 1.0756 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Jun)
Tue 19:00 – EUR Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
Fri 18:00 – EUR Retail Sales YoY (May)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0783. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0809, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0836 and potentially 1.0889.
If we cannot close above 1.0729, we could see a move back to test 1.0703 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0676, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0623.
GBP/USD – 1.2658 (+17 or +0.13%)
The GBPUSD has shown a slight upward trend, rising by 17 pips from 1.2641 to 1.2658 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Thu 19:00 – GBP UK General Election
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2689. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2722, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2754 and potentially 1.2818.
If we cannot close above 1.2626, we could see a move back to test 1.2593 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2561, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2496.
USD/JPY – 161.11 (+124 or +0.78%)
The USDJPY has shown a strong upward trend, rising by 124 pips from 159.87 to 161.11 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:50 – JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)
Mon 15:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Mon 23:45 – USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Fri 22:30 – USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 161.42. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 161.83, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 162.23 and potentially 163.03.
If we cannot close above 160.62, we could see a move back to test 160.22 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 159.82, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 159.02.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2322 (+3 or +0.13%)
Gold shows a slight upward trend, rising by 3 points from 2319 to 2322 this week. The move is minimal.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2324.8. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2330.4, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2336.0 and potentially 2347.0.
If we cannot close above 2313.2, we could see a move back to test 2307.6 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2302.0, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2290.1.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 63373 (+77 or +0.12%)
Bitcoin shows a slight upward trend, rising by 77 points from 63,203 to 63,280 this week. The move is minimal.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 63445. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 63610, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 63775 and potentially 64100.
If we cannot close above 63115, we could see a move back to test 62950 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 62785, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 62360.
