This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.
UPCOMING EVENTS
INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP
APRIL 2016 – 2 SEATS LEFT
BOOK YOUR SEAT FOR APRIL 2016 HERE
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5078 ( -127 or -2.44% )
5 consecutive down days in a row means the ASX is now below 5100 again.
For a continued move higher we would like to see a strong break and close above 5090. Should we break this level we could see a move to 5161, a continued rally could see this move head back up to 5238 before a pause.If momentum remains strong we could see an extended move into 5294.
If we fail to break 5090, we will be looking for a move back down to 4997; and a break below this could result in a move back into 4921. A strong break and close below 4921 could see a sharp move back down to 4890
EUROPE
DAX – 9897 ( -45 or -0.45% )
Once again the DAX remains in a sideways move. When these markets breakout the move will be explosive so BE PREPARED. We will be discussing potential breakout moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Prelim CPI on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 10013. A close above this level will likely see the DAX push to 10131 and 10158; and if we continue to rally we will be watching for further moves to 10289 and 10382.
If we fail to close above 9907 and 10013, we will look for a move back down to 9822. A close below this level may result in a move down 9620 and should this level fail, we could see a move back down into to 9560. A strong break below this level could see the DAX trade all the way back down to 9386 if momentum is strong to the downside.
US
SP500 – 2037 ( -10 or -0.49% )
After last week’s low volatility we will now look for volatility to pick up again this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Yellen Speaking on Tuesday, Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
For a move higher we would like to see a the S&P break and hold above 2040. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2054 before a pause. A break of 2054 may see a move into 2066 and if momentum remains strong we could see a quick move to 2079. If this rally really picks up steam we may also see 2097 before the week is over.
If we cannot close above 2040, we may see a move back down to 2019. If momentum to the downside is strong we will look for a further move back down to 2002, and a strong break below this level may see a retest of 1990.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7540 ( -62 or -0.82% )
The Aussie dollar has once again reversed on our levels. We mentioned last week could be pivotal for this rally and have seen this play out. With little AUD data this week all eyes will be on data from around the world.
For a move higher we would like to see a break and close above 0.7561. This could then see the AUD make a move to 0.7662 and 0.7729 before a pause. Should we break and close above 0.7729 we could see a very strong push up to 0.7833; and if momentum remains strong we will then be 0.7903.
If the AUD cannot break above 0.7561 we will be watching for a move back down into 0.7489. A break and close below this level will likely see the AUD head for 0.7447, and a subsequent break of this level may result in a move back down to 0.7389 before a pause.
EUR/USD – 1.1196 ( -73 or -0.65% )
After a very narrow correction EURO traders now find themselves at an important juncture this week as we decide whether we go higher or lower. Members of our LIVE CHAT ROOM will be the first to know how we will be trading this market.
VOLATILITY ALERT: German Prelim CPI on Wednesday, German Retail Sales on Thursday, CPI Flash Estimate on Thursday.
For a sustained move higher we would like to see a break and close above 1.1249, followed by a quick move to test 1.1347. 1.. A strong break and close above these levels could see the EURO head to 1.1385 and 1.1435 before a pause. Should we break this level we will look for a move to 1.1496. A break through these levels could then see a very strong move to test 1.1613.
On the downside, if we fail to break above 1.1249 we could see the EURO result in a move back down to 1.1201. Should the EURO continue to taper off, a break below this level may result in a quick moves down to 1.1163 and 1.1117 before a pause. If 1.1117 is broken, we will look for the EURO to move back down to 1.1033 and 1.0977.
GBP/USD – 1.4255 ( -222 or -1.53% )
We saw some strong selling return to the GBP/USD last week following another reversal near our levels.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Carney speaks on Thursday, GDP on Thursday, Manufacturing PMI on Friday.
For a move to the upside we would like to see 1.4223 hold and a break through 1.4382. Should this occur we should see a move to test 1.4469 before a pause. If however momentum remains strong, we will look for moves into 1.4503 and 1.4538, and finally 1.4630.
USD/JPY – 113.42 ( +187 or +1.68% )
The USD/JPY has put in 7 consecutive UP days off the low last week and has now almost entirely faded the previous move down. We will be discussing the impact of this in our MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales on Tuesday.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 113.88 and 114.08. Should this occur we will then look for a retest of 114.14 and the important 114.52 level. If momentum remains very strong we will not rule out a move to 115.54.
If we cannot break 113.88, a break and close below 113.37 could see the USD/JPY head lower to retest 112.40. Strong breaks below this level could result in a move to 111.73, and should we continue to break lower we will watch for a move back down to 111.09. Breaks below this level could result in a VERY sharp move down to 109.94.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1221 ( -34 or -2.71% )
A wide range bar last Wednesday saw Gold breakdown through the previous weeks’ consolidation.
For a continued move higher we would like to see 1206 hold as support, followed by a break and close through 1222. Should this occur we could see a strong move to 1247, and a break of this level could see a move into 1258 before another pause. If momentum to the upside remains very strong we will watch for a retest of 1276.
If Gold cannot hold above 1206, we will look for a move back down to 1187. A strong break and close below this level we could see Gold trade back down to 1181; and additional breaks lower could see this market head back down to 1160.
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