This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5710 ( +16 or +0.28% ) The ASX managed to close the week just higher for the second straight week after another flat start to October. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921. If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a quick move down into 5671 and 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.
EUROPE DAX – 12955 ( +101 or +0.79% ) The DAX continued to rally posting all-time highs for the first time this year since June. Will we see a strong continuation this week or a reversal? We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Fri 01:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12921. Should this occur we will look for a quick move to 13050 before a pause. If momentum continues to be very strong this week we will look for a move to 13205. If the DAX fails to close above 12921, we will look for a move back down to 12882. A close below this level however could see the DAX lower into 12714; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to to the downside 12566.
US SP500 – 2546 ( +27 or +1.07% ) The S&P has reached our major target of 2550 and we are now keeping a very close eye on this market. We will be discussing and trading this market exclusively this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Columbus Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 05:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 23:30 – PPI (monthly) Fri 23:30 – CPI (monthly) Fri 23:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2550. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2562. If momentum is very strong and we break through 2562 easily, we cannot rule out a fast move to 2590! If we cannot hold above 2550, we will look for a move back down to 2540. A strong break and close below this level could see a sharp move down to 2524, and if momentum is very strong on the downside we could see a sell-off into 2512 and 2500.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7774 ( -60 or -0.77% ) The Aussie Dollar once again found support on Friday near our key level at 0.7729. Is this market showing signs of a reversal this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Fri 11:30 – RBA Financial Stability Review For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7779 and close above 0.7833. Should this occur we will look for a move to 0.7903. A strong break and close above this level could set the AUD for a retest of the important 0.8000 level and a retest of 0.8034. If we cannot close above 0.7779, we will look for a move lower to retest 0.7723. A break of this level could see a strong move lower into the key 0.7677 – 0.7662 area; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see 0.7617.
EUR/USD – 1.1734 ( -76 or -0.64% ) The EURO continues to tread lower but it too is showing signs of a reversal this week. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Fri 01:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close above 1.1738. Should this occur we will look for the EURO to retest 1.1834. A strong close above this level may result in another retest of 1.1937, and if momentum is very strong all eyes will be on the big 1.2000 handle before another pause. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1738, we will look for a move back down into 1.1678 and 1.1613. A strong break and close below 1.1613 could see sharp move lower into 1.1496.
GBP/USD – 1.3066 ( -330 or -2.46% ) The Pound continues to sell-off as rumours of Brexit mismanagement continue. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly) Tue 19:30 – Goods Trade Balance Thu 19:30 – BoE Conditions Survey For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3035 as mentioned last week. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3277 before a pause. A break of this level is very likely to see the GBP/USD test 1.3309, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 1.3534. If we fail to hold above 1.3035, we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level could then see this market trade back into 1.2720 before a pause. If momentum is strong and we break and close below 1.2720, we could see a sharp move lower into 1.2600.
USD/JPY – 112.65 ( +17 or +0.15% ) The $/YEN edged slightly higher last week but an interesting reversal following Friday’s poor NFP numbers sets up for a very key week. NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Health Sports Day) For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.72. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 112.68. A strong break and close above this level could see the YEN rally strongly into 113.87; and if momentum is very strong we could see a move into 114.31. If we cannot hold above 111.72, we will look for a retest of 111.09. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 110.45, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a sharp move down into 109.94.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1276 ( -3 or -0.23% ) Gold also saw a key reversal posted on Friday. This week our levels remain unchanged however we will be discussing this market in more detail this week in the MEMBER PORTAL . For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1278, followed by a retest of 1294. A strong break above 1294 could see this market head back up to 1303, and if momentum remains strong we could see a move into 1313 before another pause. If Gold cannot hold above 1278, we will look for a strong move back down into 1263 and 1257. A break and close below this level could then result in a move to 1247 before the week’s end.
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