This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6733 ( -120 or -1.75% )
The ASX stages a small recovery towards the end of the last week however still managed to finish the week down.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:05 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Tue 11:30 – HPI (quarterly), NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6804. Should this occur we will look for a re-test of 6850. A strong break of this level however is likely to see the ASX rally to new all-time highs into 6905, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 7011.
If the ASX cannot close above 6804, we will look for a move back down to 6720. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6650 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6544.
EUROPE
DAX – 13173 ( -57 or -0.43% )
The DAX finally broke out of its tight sideways range only return back inside it. This week is a very important week for this market and we will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX close above 13205, on its way to retesting 13388. A strong break and close above this level could see a fast move to 13520, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13697.
If the DAX fails to close above 13205, we could see a move back down into 13050. A break below this level could mean a further move down into 12921, and if momentum is very strong we could see a fast move down to 12830.
US
SP500 – 3146 ( +3 or +0.1% )
The S&P is just shy of all time highs following a strong recovery last week. Will we see more all-time highs this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 00:30 – CPI (monthly)
Thu 06:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Fri 00:30 – PPI (monthly)
Sat 00:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3115. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 3150. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3159 and 3166; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3210.
If we cannot hold above 3115, we could see this market move lower into 3100. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3066; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3020.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6841 ( +80 or +1.18% )
The Aussie Dollar managed to find support right at our key 0.6762 level. Can this market continue its recovery?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:05 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Tue 11:30 – HPI (quarterly), NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6800 on its way to retesting 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6800, we will look for a move lower into 0.6762. A break of this level sets the stage for a move down to 0.6692; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a move into 0.6598.
EUR/USD – 1.1060 ( +42 or +0.38% )
The Euro finished last week slightly higher and all eyes are on this market this week for its next leg.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249 if momentum remains strong.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0902 and 1.0814 by the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3137 ( +205 or +1.59% )
Last week’s biggest mover finally broke out of its sideways range and this week markets around the world will look to the UK for what should be a very exciting week. We will be covering this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – GDP (monthly), Manufacturing Production (monthly)
Thu ALL DAY – Parliamentary Elections
For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable hold above 1.3110. Should this occur we will look for follow-through to 1.3277 this week. If momentum to the upside is very strong, we will look for a move to 1.3386.
On the downside, a close below 1.3110 could result in a move to 1.3035. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2868. level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 108.57 ( -90 or -0.82% )
After the reversal lower last week we are starting to see some concerns amongst the $/YEN bulls.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 109.21, on its way to retesting 109.94 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.78 and 111.09.
If we cannot close above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75 before a pause. Should we break lower however, we could see a strong move down into 107.36.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1459 ( -4 or -0.27% )
Gold was sold off aggressively on Friday and this market is back down into the key 1450 – 1460 area.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1450. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 1470; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1480 and 1505.
If Gold cannot hold above 1450, we will look for a move back down into 1433. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1416, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1402.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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