This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6746 ( +99 or +1.49% ) The ASX has again broken to new multi-year highs and now has its sights at all-time highs. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6720. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6804. A strong break of this level however could see the ASX rally quickly to 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 7011. If the ASX cannot close above 6720, we will look for a move back down to 6682. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.
EUROPE DAX – 12577 ( +177 or +1.43% ) The DAX gapped strongly last week and held its gap. Will we see further upside this week or are there more surprises in store? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move to 12921. If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.
US SP500 – 2987 ( +38 or +1.29% ) The S&P finally reached 3000 and after selling off has managed to recover. Can it continue higher? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 22:45 – FED Chair Powell Speaks Thu 00:00 – FED Chair Powell Testifies Thu 04:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly) Fri 00:00 – FED Chair Powell Testifies Fri 22:30 – PPI (monthly) For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2985. Should this occur we will look for a move to 3003. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3066. If we cannot close above 2985, we could see this market retest 2960. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2941; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see sharp moves down into 2902 and 2870.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.6978 ( -45 or -0.64% ) It was a volatile week for the Aussie Dollar with RBA yet again cutting rates. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.7014, we will look for a move lower into 6958. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1225 ( -145 or -1.28% ) The Euro sold off last week as it tests the important 1.1200 level. We will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Sun ALL DAY – Greek Parliamentary Election Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1249, we could see a move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2519 ( -176 or -1.39% ) Like the Euro the Pound was also lower last week and again testing a very key level at 1.2520. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 18:30 – GDP (monthly), Manufacturing Production (monthly) Thu 19:30 – BoE Financial Stability Report For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2622, followed by a retest of 1.2720 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a stronger move into 1.3035. On the downside, a close below 1.2480 could see this market sell off strongly into 1.2350. Any further weakness below this level could see the Pound continue to slide down into 1.2297; and if momentum to the downside is very strong this week we cannot rule out a move to 1.2195.
USD/JPY – 108.47 ( +55 or +0.51% ) The $/YEN continues its short squeeze as discussed last week and this week is yet another test for the bulls. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 10:30 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78. If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1398 ( +11 or +0.78% ) Gold continues to consolidate above its breakout. Will this market make a move this week? For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1402. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1416; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see another retest of 1433. A strong close above this level however could see Gold rally to 1450. If Gold cannot close above 1402, we will look for a move back down into 1393. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1374, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1365.
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