This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4816
The ASX range traded last week and an important aspect of its range was 4719 holding as a support level.
If we are to see an upmove from here we would like to see the 4840 level broken as confirmation, and a close above 4903 could see a new uptrend forming.
If the longer term downward move continues then another break below 4719 could see 4582. If 4582 does not hold then 4417 could be the next possible target.
EUROPE
FTSE – 6434
The FTSE made an important break above two levels mentioned last week, they were 6236 and 6306, which indicates a potential reversal of trend.
If we are to see this new uptrend form then 6306 needs to establish itself as a strong support level. If it holds we would like to see 6536 and 6699 broken with solid momentum before reaching 6739.
If we are to see another leg down as continuance of the previous down move then 6306 needs to be broken early and with strong down bars before reaching 6225 followed by 6080.
DAX – 7867
The DAX did not show the same momentum as some of the other upward trending markets and
8008 has shown itself to be a solid resistance level.
If we are to see an up move then 8008 needs to be broken early before an attempt can be made.
Once this is broken we could see 8106 followed by 8350.
If we stay below 8003 then any down moves could see 7750 followed by 7660 reached on the way down to 7584.
US
S&P – 1635
The S&P is trying hard to take the lead in the current market conditions but has now closed on the upper line of the standard deviation channel which could be a level of potential resistance.
If this upmove is to continue, then it needs to do so with strength and an early break towards 1648 which could see another attempt at all time highs.
If the longer term downtrend which is based on the standard deviation channel is to continue then 1611 needs to be broken followed by 1600 before 1569 is reached and then eventually 1547.
NASDAQ – 2967
The NASDAQ has taken an important step towards leading the world market rally by breaking and closing above 2938.
If this up move is to continue we would like to see 2995 broken early this week. This level needs to become support before another attempt at the May highs is made.
If a down move takes place then 2938 needs to be broken early in the week with solid momentum before reaching 2901 then down towards 2839.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 9056
The AUD is now only 56 points away from changing its big figure from a 9 to an 8 and at this pace we might see it on the 8th of July.
If the continuation of this down move is to occur and a break below 9000 is made with solid momentum then we could be looking at 8780 as the next level.
If AUD buyers decide to come back into the market then a break above 9190 could see 9272 reached.
EUR.USD – 12826
The EUR down move continued last week breaking and closing just below another important level of 12837.
If the down move is to continue again then another solid move past 12770 could see it go into freefall just like the AUDUSD did, and then find itself near the low 120’s quite quickly.
If a break back above 12837 occurs early this week with the same momentum as the prevailing down move, then we could see a short but potent up move towards 13033 before another resistance level is reached.
GBP.USD – 14882
The GBP’s down move accelerated last week and reached a low of 14856 which was just 25 points higher than the March lows of 14831. This was mainly due to Bank of England (BOE) indicating further easing and holding rates low for longer than expected.
If this down move continues then we would like to see March’s low of 14831 broken with solid long down bars and strong momentum before it too goes into freefall and mid 140’s are reached.
If 14831 provides some solid support then a bounce back up could be sharp and 15008 could be reached quickly followed by 15185.
USD.JPY – 10118
The USDJPY rally continued past the 100 level with strong momentum before falling back below. This determination shows that it wanted to stay above 100 and its second attempt was only 20 points from our target of 10141.
If the up move is to continue then a solid break above 10141 could provide enough momentum for that the USDJPY to rally past 10200 an reach 10251.
If a reversal is to take place then a break below both 9976 and 9936 could see 9864. If 9864 does not hold then 9716 is the lower target.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1222
GOLD made another attempt at a rally but was short lived.
If the down move is to continue this week in the same fashion as last week, then no downside targets will be attempted.
If there are any GOLD buyers that are reading this report, then a break past 1321 needs to occur before a new attempt at an up move is made. Short term potential resistance 1265.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 103.46
LIGHT CRUDE has broken away from its range trading last week by breaking past the all important 9946 followed by a burst of 400 points to close at current levels. FICM our proprietary trading indicator is indicating a potential slowdown for the current move.
If the current up move is to continue then 105.80 needs to be broken early and with the same momentum as last week’s rally otherwise the slowdown process will start.
If the slowdown process takes effect and a down move starts then we would like to see 100.88 broken before another potential fall below 100 is possible.
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