This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5879 ( -151 or -2.5% )
The ASX has finally broken out to the downside yet remains in a sideways range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 5921 followed by a push into 6070. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6140, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6206 and 6276.
If the ASX cannot close above 5921, we will look for a move back down to 5823 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 5746, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5614.
EUROPE
DAX – 12964 ( -99 or -0.76% )
The DAX was lower last week and the question now is- has this market put in a reversal? We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
Fri 03:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri ALL DAY – Eurogroup Meetings
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 13050. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move back up into 13266, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13520.
If the DAX fails to close above 13050, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12266.
US
SP500 – 3416 ( -93 or -2.65% )
A strong sell-off towards the end of last week saw the S&P break important levels to the downside. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Labor Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Fri 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non Farm Employment Numbers
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3395. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3498. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3560; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3602.
If we cannot hold above 3395, we could see this market move lower into 3338. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3274; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3210 and 3140.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7282 ( -84 or -1.14% )
The Aussie Dollar is trading back in the 72c area and all eyes are on whether buyers can maintain this level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7364. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7447, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7489 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.7364, we will look for this market to break lower through 0.7282. A break and close below this level could see a sharp decline into 0.7112; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.7014.
EUR/USD – 1.1837 ( -69 or -0.58% )
The EURO remains in a sideways range and as such our levels remain unchanged. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
Fri 03:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri ALL DAY – Eurogroup Meetings
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1834. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1925. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2002; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2042 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1834, we could see a fast move down into 1.1738 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1678, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1613.
GBP/USD – 1.3282 ( -68 or -0.51% )
Cable closed lower last week and like the Euro, is also struggling at some key areas.
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3277, followed by a move higher into 1.3350 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3534 by the weeks’ end.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3277, we could see a move back down to 1.3035. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2867 by the week’s end; and if momentum is very strong to the downside 1.2720 cannot be ruled out.
USD/JPY – 106.23 ( +88 or +0.84% )
The $/Yen finished higher but the major question is- can this market break higher from here? We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 105.99. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 106.82, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move all the way back up to 108.31.
If we cannot hold above 105.99, we could see another move back down into 105.50. A break below this level may result in further downside to 104.97; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 103.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1933 ( -30 or -1.53% )
GOLD is testing a very key level at the moment and any breakdown and we are getting ready for a move. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
For a move higher we must see this market close above 1938. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2012. A break above this level sets Gold up for retests of 2033 and 2050.
If Gold cannot close above 1938, we will look for a move back down to 1920. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1900; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a sharp move down to 1871.
