This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5742 ( +26 or +0.45% ) The ASX enters its 3rd month in a very tight range and we continue to remain on alert for a big breakout, especially with some key Chinese economic data due this week. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . NOTE: Monday is a Bank Holiday in NSW VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Fri 9:30 – RBA Governor Lowe testifies For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close and hold above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921. If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see another retest of 5671. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out
EUROPE DAX – 12285 ( +105 or +0.86% ) As we mentioned in last Friday’s LIVE TV our models showed there was a high probability the DAX would hold and potentially rally off 12115. This is exactly what we saw. We will be discussing this market further this week in the MEMBER PORTAL . For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 12384; and if we can break strongly above this area this sets the DAX up for a retest of 12536. A strong break of 12536 could then see a move into 12714. If the DAX fails to hold above 12198, we are likely to see a move lower into 12115 again. A break below this level is likely to see a retest of 12044 – 12035. This is a very key area and further breaks down could see a sharp move down into 1187.
US SP500 – 2474 ( +1 or +0.04% ) The S&P has remained practically unchanged all week. Once again in Friday’s LIVE TV we said the key level was 2474 and following NFP this is exactly where we closed. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 22:30 – PPI Monthly Fri 22:30 – CPI Monthly For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above our key level at 2465, followed by a strong break and close above 2477. Should we continue to break higher, we will look for a move to 2511 before another pause. If we cannot hold above 2465, we will look for a move down to retest 2450. A strong break and close below this level means we could see the S&P trade lower into 2445 and 2440. If momentum to the downside is strong, a move down into 2431 by the end of the week cannot be ruled out
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7929 ( -57 or -0.71% ) The Aussie dollar weakened last week and has now had multiple failed attempts above our key 0.8034 target discussed last week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence Fri 9:30 – RBA Governor Lowe testifies For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7903, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7988. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 0.8034. A strong break and close above 0.8034 could see this market post further gains into 0.8118. On the downside, a close below 0.7903 could result in a retest of 0.7833. Should we break lower however, we will look for a move back into 0.7779 and if downside momentum continues we could see 0.7729 quickly before another pause .
EUR/USD – 1.1771 ( +23 or +0.2% ) The EURO sold off aggressively following Friday’s NFP and we will look to see if there is follow through to the downside this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1746 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1746 could result in a fast move to 1.1822. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1613, we will look for a move back down into 1.1496. A break below this could see a quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we will look for a move to 1.1347 .
GBP/USD – 1.3037 ( -98 or -0.75% ) Like the EURO, the Pound also sold off aggressively into last week’s close with the BoE deciding to hold the benchmark rate last week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 17:30 – Halifax Home Price Index Thu 18:30 – Manufacturing Production Thu 18:30 – Goods Trade Balance For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3035 as mentioned last week. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3277 before a pause. A break of this level is very likely to see the GBP/USD test 1.3309, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 1.3534. If we fail to hold above 1.3035, we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level could then see this market trade back into 1.2720 before a pause. If momentum is strong and we break and close below 1.2720, we could see a sharp move lower into 1.2600.
USD/JPY – 110.67 ( -2 or -0.02% ) The $/YEN rallied on Friday as we had spoken of in the MEMBER PORTAL to finish off the week unchanged. This week our levels remain unchanged. NOTE: Friday is a public holiday in Japan (Mountain Day) For a continued move to the upside we must now see this market close strongly above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 111.73, and a retest of the key level at 112.22. Should we break and close above 112.22 we could see a strong move into 113.87 – 114.08, and if momentum is very strong a move higher into 114.52 cannot be ruled out by week’s end. If we cannot close above 111.09, the YEN may see further downside into a key area between 110.10 – 109.94. A strong break and close below 109.94 may result in further downside into 109.21, and if downside momentum is very strong this week 108.31 cannot be ruled out.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1258 ( -11 or -0.87% ) Last week GOLD took a break from its 3 week rally and is now sitting just above our key 1257 level . For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1257. Should this occur we will look for a move higher back into our key 1276 – 1278 area, and if momentum is very strong to the upside we could see a retest of 1294. If Gold cannot hold above 1257, we will look for a move back down into 1247. A strong break below this level could see a move down into 1235, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1222.
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