This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5972 ( +34 or +0.57% ) The ASX continued to rally higher last week as we now approach some very KEY and IMPORTANT long term levels. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5921. Should this occur we will look for a move to 5985. A break through this level could see a retest of 6000; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6140. If the ASX cannot hold above 5921, we will look for a move back down to 5823. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5777, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see further moves down to 5746 and 5705.
EUROPE DAX – 13467 ( +251 or +1.9% ) The DAX is once again at all time highs having test but failed to close above 13500. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX hold above 13388. Should this occur we will look for a move to 13520; and if momentum is strong a move to 13697. If the DAX fails to hold above 13388, we could see a move back down into 13205. A break below this level could mean another move to the 13050 level; and if the sell-off continues we cannot rule out a quick move down into 12921.
US SP500 – 2585 ( +5 or +0.19% ) Like the DAX, the S&P continues to post all-time highs and our levels from last week remain unchanged. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: We 06:30 – FED Chair Janet Yellen Speaks For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2574. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2590. If momentum is very strong and we break through 2590 easily, we cannot rule out a fast move to 2628. If we cannot hold above 2574, we will look for a move back down to 2562. A break below this may likely see a retest of 2550 and 2540, and if momentum is very strong on the downside we could see a sell-off into 2524.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7650 ( -25 or -0.33% ) The Aussie Dollar was slightly lower last week and the question now is can it find support? We will be discussing this market again in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement For a move higher we must now close above 0.7662. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7729. A break and close above this level is likely to result in a move to 0.7797 before a pause; however if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833. If we cannot close above 0.7662, we will look for a retest of 0.7617. A strong break and close below this level could see 0.7617, and below this our next level is back down to 0.7561. Should we see a very strong reversal to the downside a move to 0.7489 cannot be ruled out. EUR/USD – 1.1609 ( +2 or +0.02% ) The EURO continues to trade sideways and we are now watching this market very closely. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon – EUROGROUP Meetings Tue – ECOFIN Meetings Tue 18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1613, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347. GBP/USD – 1.3075 ( -53 or -0.4% ) Like the EURO the Pound too has been chopping about sideways as the market was not too happy about the last Thursday’s BoE decision. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:30 – Halifax HPI (monthly) Fri 20:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly) Fri 20:30 – Goods Trade Balance For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable break and close back above 1.3277. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3309 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3534. If we cannot break above 1.3277, we will look for a retest of 1.3035. A break below this level could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868, and should the downside momentum continue we will look for a move to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 114.05 ( +38 or +0.33% ) The $/YEN was again slightly higher for the second straight week as we can clearly see some stiff resistance here. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 13:00 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market hold above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 114.52. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 115.54, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 116.08. If we cannot hold above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 we could see very sharp into 111.09 .
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1269 ( -5 or -0.39% ) Gold is again testing a key double bottom area and last week’s questions remains: Is the downside move in Gold over are will there be more selling to come? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . For a continued move higher we would like to see this market close above 1278, followed by a retest of 1294. A strong break above 1294 could see this market head back up to 1303, and if momentum remains strong we could see a move into 1313 before another pause. If Gold cannot close above 1278, we will look for a strong move back down into 1263 and 1257. A break and close below this level could then result in a move to 1247 before the week’s end.
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