This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6372 ( -17 or -0.27% ) The ASX is range bound again; have we seen an end to this short-term correction? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales, Trade Balance Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6350. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6435, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6500. If the ASX cannot hold above 6350, we will look for a move back down to 6276 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6180, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6140. EUROPE DAX – 12444 ( +134 or +1.09% ) The DAX closed the week strong and with 5 straight UP days. How high can this market go? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12566 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12750. If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12044 this week.
US SP500 – 2947 ( +8 or +0.27% ) The S&P has finally broken to new all time highs! We will be discussing what this week should look like in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 22:30 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks, PPI (monthly) Fri 22:30 – CPI (monthly) For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2941. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2960 before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2985 and 3000. If we cannot hold above 2941, we could see this market sell-off into 2922 and then 2902 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2870; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2838.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7023 ( – 15 or -0.21% ) The Aussie dollar continues to trade at a critical level around 70c, and this will be a very important week for the Aussie dollar. We will be covering the importance of this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales, Trade Balance Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1202 ( +58 or +0.52% ) The Euro is trying to find support at 1.1150; and the question now is can the bulls hold this market above 1.1200? NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday in France (Victory Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3175 ( +261 or +2.02% ) Following an attempted push lower, Cable failed to break through 1.2868 and has rallied 300 points higher back to the previous range. NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the UK (May day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:10 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks Wed 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement Fri 18:30 – Services PMI For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable hold above 1.3110. Should this occur we will look for follow-through to 1.3277 this week. If momentum to the upside is very strong, we will look for a move to 1.3386. On the downside, a close below 1.3110 could result in a move to 1.3035. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2868. level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 111.10 ( -45 or -0.4% ) The YEN is also now at a critical level sitting right above the important 111.09 support. NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Children’s Day). For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 111.73. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 112.22. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 112.68, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 113.27 cannot be ruled out. If we cannot close above 111.73, we are likely to see a break of 111.09 which could see a fast move down to 110.67. If the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sell-off into 109.94.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1278 ( -7 or -0.54% ) Last week we stated Gold had put in a swing bottom. This week we now find this market with a double bottom. For a continued move higher we must now see this market and hold above 1278. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1294. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1303; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1313.
If Gold cannot hold above 1278, we will look for a move back down into 1260. A strong break and close below this level however could see Gold trade quickly into 1247 before a pause.
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