This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 5835 ( +173 or +3.06% ) The ASX sustained a bounce higher for the entire week last week but can it continue? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Fri 11:30 – Monetary Policy Statement For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5823 followed by a retest of 5930. A strong close above 5930 could see a move back up into 5985 , and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a strong reversal into 6070. If the ASX cannot hold above 5823, we will look for a move back down to 5777 and 5746 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX sell off into 5671, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move down to 5582.
EUROPE DAX – 11552 ( +354 or +3.16% ) The DAX has closed above the key 11519 level but failed to reach 11755. For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054. If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US SP500 – 2722 ( +60 or +2.25% ) The S&P is now at a very important inflection point going into a very important week. We will be discussing this market extensively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed ALL DAY – Congressional Mid-term Elections – LIVE TV Fri 06:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Sat 00:30 – PPI (monthly) For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2760. Should this occur we could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2808 and 2838. If we cannot close above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2704 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2680; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2660 and 2638.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7198 ( +109 or +1.54% ) The Aussie dollar has finally broken out of its sideways range and the question now is can it continue to rally? We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Fri 11:30 – Monetary Policy Statement For a move higher we would like to see the AUD break above 0.7229, followed by a break and close above 0.7282. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7364 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move back up into 0.7447. If we cannot hold above 0.7229, we will look for a move back down to 0.7169. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7112 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7070.
EUR/USD – 1.1386 ( -16 or -0.14% ) The Euro remained relatively unchanged last week and as such our levels have remain unchanged. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:00 – EU Economic Forecasts For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1613, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347.
GBP/USD – 1.2966 ( +139 or +1.08% ) The Pound has put in an interesting bounce now as we wait and see what’s in store for this market this week, look out for some surprises! We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 20:30 – Services PMI Fri 20:30 – GDP (monthly) Fri 20:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly) For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3035, followed by a retest of 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386. On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2868, there is every chance we see a move lower into 1.2720. Should this level break however we could see a fast move down into 1.2622.
USD/JPY – 113.19 ( +130 or +1.16% ) Is the $/YEN holding on by a thread or strongly supported? We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market close above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 114.52. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 115.54, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 116.08. If we cannot close above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 WATCH OUT- the move that follows may be very sharp into 111.09 and 109.94.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1232 ( -1 or -0.08% ) GOLD also remained unchanged last week and we are watching this market closely now. For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 1222 on its way to re-testing 1238. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1247, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move into 1260 before a pause. If Gold cannot close above 1222, we could see another decline into 1216. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in further downside into 1206, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move back down into 1187.
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