This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5741 ( -4 or -0.07% ) We saw an important reversal last week and the ASX is now back at the midway point of this sideways range. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly) Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Tue 14:30 – RBA Statement Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5777, and a strong close above this could result in a quick move to 5823. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5875 and 5921. If the ASX cannot close and hold above 5746, we are likely to see a strong move down into 5671 and 5648. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong a move down into 5582 and 5521 cannot be ruled out.
EUROPE DAX – 12143 ( -27 or -0.22% ) The DAX has again remain largely unchanged, regaining most of its early losses by the end of the week. Can this market break higher? We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12115. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 12198. A strong break of this level could see the DAX rally quickly to 12384; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 12566 If the DAX fails to hold above 12115, we will look for a move back down to 12044. A close below this level could see a move down into 11875. Below this we have key support between 11755 – 11790. However should these levels break be prepared for a potentially strong move down into 11519.
US SP500 – 2474 ( +31 or +1.27% ) Last week saw the S&P come into our key 2475-2477 area which we covered in LIVE TV, before failing to close higher for the week. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US and Canada (Labour Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 00:00 – Factory Orders (monthly) Wed 22:30 – Trade Balance Thu 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI For a move higher we would like to see the S&P break above our key level at 2475, followed by another strong break and close above 2480. Should this occur we are likely to see a retest of the all-time high into 2490, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see 2512 before another pause. If we cannot hold above 2465, we could see a quick move down to retest 2450. A strong break and close below this level means we could see the S&P trade lower into 2445 and 2440. If momentum to the downside is strong, a move down into 2431 by the end of the week cannot be ruled out.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7967 ( +36 or +0.45% ) We are set for a big week in the Aussie dollar and will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL . We are on alert for high volatility in $AUD currencies this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly) Tue 11:30 – Current Account Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Tue 14:30 – RBA Statement Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance Fri 13:00 – RBA Assistant Gov Debelle Speaks For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7903, followed by a strong break and close above 0.7988. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 0.8034. A strong break and close above 0.8034 could see this market post further gains into 0.8118. If we cannot hold above 0.7903, we could see the AUD retest 0.7833. Should we break lower however, we will look for a move back into 0.7779 and if downside momentum continues we could see 0.7729 quickly before another pause.
EUR/USD – 1.1862 ( -59 or -0.49% ) The EURO was strong early in the week but failed to hold above 1.2000. Will Mario Draghi have a few surprises in store this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 17:00 – Spanish Unemployment Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1834. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.2042. A break of 1.2042 could see the EURO rally quickly into 1.2167. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1834, we will look for a move back down into 1.1738. A strong break of this level could then see a move back down into 1.1678, and if downside momentum is strong we could quickly see a move lower into 1.1613.
GBP/USD – 1.2954 ( +77 or +0.6% ) The GBP is in consolidation mode but could be gearing up for a volatile move this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:30 – Construction PMI Tue 18:30 – Services PMI Thu 17:30 – Halifax House Price Index (monthly) Fri 18:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly) For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2868 followed by a break above 1.3035. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3277 before a pause. A break of this level is very likely to see the GBP/USD test 1.3309, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 1.3534. If we fail to hold above 1.2868, we may see this market trade back into 1.2720 before another pause. If momentum is strong and we break and close below 1.2720, we could see a sharp move lower into 1.2600.
USD/JPY – 110.24 ( +91 or +0.83% ) Last week we noted the YEN was at key levels and we saw some fantastic reversals at our levels. Can the YEN continue its rally into this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Fri 09:50 – Final GDP (quarterly) For a continued move to the upside we must now see this market close strongly above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 111.73. If momentum remains strong we cannot rule out a retest of 112.22 and above this 113.04 by week’s end. If we cannot close above 111.09, the YEN may see another retest of the important area between 110.10 – 109.94. A strong break and close below 109.94 may result in further downside into 109.21, and if downside momentum is very strong this week 108.31 cannot be ruled out.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1325 ( +34 or +2.63% ) Gold has broken out with a flurry catching many people on the wrong side. For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1322, followed by a strong break of 1333. Should this occur we could see this market rally very quick into 1355 before another pause. If momentum is very strong, 1375 cannot be ruled out. If Gold cannot hold above 1322, we will look for a strong move back down into 1313. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1303, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see 1296 before the week’s end.
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