This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6699 ( -67 or -0.99% )
The ASX finished the week slightly lower but having found support mid week. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Rate Statement
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance
Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6682. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6804. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 7011.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6635. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.
EUROPE
DAX – 12968 ( +74 or +0.57% )
The DAX also has marginally broken out of its consolidation and this week we will be watching this market for continuation or failure.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 05:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Thu 21:00 – EU Economic Forecasts
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 13050. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move into 13205, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13301.
If the DAX fails to close above 13050, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12921.A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12714; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12566.
US
SP500 – 3065 ( +44 or +1.46% )
The S&P is at all-time highs with no sign of slowing down just yet. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Sat 02:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3066. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3100. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3140.
If we cannot hold above 3066, we could see this market retest 3020. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3003; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2985.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6913 ( +92 or +1.35% )
The Aussie Dollar also continues to rally and is now approaching the all important 70c level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Rate Statement
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance
Fri 11:30 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6825. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6762.
EUR/USD – 1.1165 ( +85 or +0.77% )
This week new ECB President Christine Lagarde takes center stage as she introduces herself in her first speech as ECB President.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 05:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Thu 21:00 – EU Economic Forecasts
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197. Should this occur, we could then see a move to 1.1249 before a pause. If momentum to the upside is very strong, we could see a move into 1.1297.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see a move down into 1.1117 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a further move down into 1.1033; however any break of this level may result in a sharp move down to 1.0977.
GBP/USD – 1.2938 ( +109 or +0.85% )
An extension to BREXIT has been granted and as we spoke about last week, this market is now consolidating.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – Services PMI
Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 23:30 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035 and 1.3161 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.
On the downside, should we fail to hold above 1.2868, we will be watching the key 1.2720 level very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622; and if downside momentum remains strong we could see a quick drop into 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 108.17 ( -49 or -0.45% )
The $/YEN sold off aggressively following last week’s BoJ Monetary Policy Statement. We will be discussing the ongoing impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
Note: Monday is a bank holiday in Japan (Culture Day)
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.
If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1513 ( +9 or +0.6% )
Gold is attempting to break to the upside having closed near its highs of last week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.
If Gold cannot hold above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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