This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6227 ( +49 or +0.79% ) With the 2018 highs in sight, can the ASX continue to rally higher this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals Tue 11:30 – Current Account Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Wed 09:10 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales, Trade Balance For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6276. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6345, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6440. If the ASX cannot close above 6276, we will look for a move back down to 6206 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070. EUROPE DAX – 11634 ( +172 or +1.5% ) The DAX once again broke through key technical resistance last week and as a result saw a significant move to the upside. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054. If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US SP500 – 2805 ( +11 or +0.39% ) The S&P is still testing this big area at 2808. Can we finally break through here this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Employment Numbers Sat 14:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2760. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2808 before a pause. A strong break below this level however see a bigger move into 2838, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2870. If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7079 ( -49 or -0.69% ) With the Aussie Dollar closing lower last week will there be a surprise announcement by the RBA this week? We will be discussing this market in the MEMBER PORTAL as it happens. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals Tue 11:30 – Current Account Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Wed 09:10 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Wed 11:30 – GDP (quarterly) Thu 11:30 – Retail Sales, Trade Balance For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1362 ( +30 or +0.26% ) The Euro continues to remain in a sideways range and this market should now be watched closely for a strong breakout. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1335 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1453 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1496 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1613 by the week’s end. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1335, we could see a fast move down into 1.1249 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1201, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3208 ( +153 or +1.17% ) Like last week, buyers continue to push this market higher but once again we come into strong resistance. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 20:30 – Services PMI Wed 02:35 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3161 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386. On the downside, if we cannot hold above 1.3161 we will look for a move back down to 1.3035. A break below this level however could see this market retest 1.2868; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move to the key 1.2720 level and 1.2622.
USD/JPY – 111.92 ( +127 or +1.15% ) The breakout in the YEN is underway as we continue to fade January’s move lower. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we could see $/YEN rally into 112.68 and 113.29 by the end of this week. If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for another quick retest of 111.09.. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.94
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1293 ( -34 or -2.56% ) Last week saw momentum on the downside really pick up in GOLD, with sellers taking control of this market on Friday. For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333. If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area. Should this level break, we could see a strong move down to 1260.
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