This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6372 ( -82 or -1.27% ) The ASX is back at an important level as we enter a very full week of economic data. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly) Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Tue 19:30 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Wed 11:30 – GDP (monthly) Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6435. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670. If the ASX cannot close above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6180. EUROPE DAX – 11706 ( -321 or -2.67% ) The DAX sold off aggressively on Friday as the US led many markets lower. We will be discussing this market in the this week. LIVE CHAT ROOM VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054. If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US SP500 – 2751 ( -78 or -2.76% ) As we enter a new month can the US post a turn-around with positive job numbers this week? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI Tue 23:55 – FED Chair Powell Speaks Thu 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Employment Numbers – LIVE TV For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2760. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2808 before a pause. A strong break below this level however see a bigger move into 2838, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2870. If we cannot close above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.6934 ( +7 or +0.1% ) In what is perhaps the most important week for the Aussie Dollar so far this year, we will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL . This is shaping up to be a volatile week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly) Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly) Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Tue 19:30 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Wed 11:30 – GDP (monthly) Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6934. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7014, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out moves to 0.7057 and 0.7112 before a pause. If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6934, we will look for a move lower into 0.6873. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6825; and if downside momentum is very strong we may see a decline into 0.6762.
EUR/USD – 1.1169 ( -36 or -0.32% ) The Euro continues to base at our key levels and this could be the week we see a breakout move. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual) Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2630 ( -81 or -0.64% ) The Pound is also trying to base with this week again all about the important 1.2720 level to the upside. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI Wed 18:30 – Services PMI Thu 19:00 – BoE Governor Carney speaks For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of 1.3191. On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 108.29 ( -100 or -0.91% ) Did you see Friday’s sell-off!! This very bearish event was the same event we referred to in Friday’s LIVE TV. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 18:25 – BoJ Kuroda speaks For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78. If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1305 ( +21 or +1.64% ) Gold has also broken out to the upside and to cement this move we may see this market higher again this week. For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1303. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1313. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1322; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a push higher into 1333. If Gold cannot hold above 1303, we will look for a move back down into 1294. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down to the next level at 1285; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into the key 1276 – 1278 area.
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