This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6372 (-82 or -1.27%)
The ASX is back at an important level as we enter a very full week of economic data.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly)
Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Tue 19:30 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed 11:30 – GDP (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6435. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670.
If the ASX cannot close above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6180.
EUROPE
DAX – 11706 (-321 or -2.67%)
The DAX sold off aggressively on Friday as the US led many markets lower. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.
If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US
SP500 – 2751 (-78 or -2.76%)
As we enter a new month can the US post a turn-around with positive job numbers this week? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tue 23:55 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Employment Numbers – LIVE TV
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2760. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2808 before a pause. A strong break below this level however see a bigger move into 2838, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2870.
If we cannot close above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6934 (+7 or +0.1%)
In what is perhaps the most important week for the Aussie Dollar so far this year, we will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL. This is shaping up to be a volatile week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – Company Operating Profits (quarterly)
Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Tue 19:30 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
Wed 11:30 – GDP (monthly)
Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6934. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7014, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out moves to 0.7057 and 0.7112 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6934, we will look for a move lower into 0.6873. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6825; and if downside momentum is very strong we may see a decline into 0.6762.
EUR/USD – 1.1169 (-36 or -0.32%)
The Euro continues to base at our key levels and this could be the week we see a breakout move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2630 (-81 or -0.64%)
The Pound is also trying to base with this week again all about the important 1.2720 level to the upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Wed 18:30 – Services PMI
Thu 19:00 – BoE Governor Carney speaks
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of 1.3191.
On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 108.29 (-100 or -0.91%)
Did you see Friday’s sell-off!! This very bearish event was the same event we referred to in Friday’s LIVE TV.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 18:25 – BoJ Kuroda speaks
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.
If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1305 (+21 or +1.64%)
Gold has also broken out to the upside and to cement this move we may see this market higher again this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1303. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1313. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1322; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a push higher into 1333.
If Gold cannot hold above 1303, we will look for a move back down into 1294. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down to the next level at 1285; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into the key 1276 – 1278 area.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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