This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5712 ( -3 or -0.05% ) The ASX continues to stay in a sideways range between our key levels of 5671 – 5823. We again saw how important 5823 was with a complete reversal to the downside on Thursday. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Thur 11:30 – Trade Balance For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746, followed by a strong break above 5777. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5823, and a strong close above this may result in a move to 5875. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5921 and 5925. If the ASX cannot close above 5746, we are likely to see another retest of 5671. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong 5582 cannot be ruled out.
EUROPE DAX – 12376 ( -351 or -2.76% ) Last week we said “… with a big week of of data this market is gearing up for a big move so GET READY…” . Thursday was that big move right into our support levels. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 12536 and the important 12714 level before a potential pause. If we can break and close strongly through 12714 we will then look for a move to 12880 – 12900. If the DAX fails to hold above 12384, we are likely to see a move lower into 12198. A break below this level could see further downside into 12044; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 11875.
US SP500 – 2424 ( -13 or -0.53% ) S&P 2440 has again proved to be a dominant level and as such our levels and commentary remain unchanged this week. NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday (Independance Day). VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI Wed 00:00 – Factory Orders Wed 04:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes Thu 22:30 – Trade Balance Fri 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV Sat 01:00 – Fed Monetary Policy Report For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above our key level at 2418, followed by a strong break and close above 2440. Should this occur we anticipate further upside over the following week. Our next upside targets remain at 2465 and 2477. If we cannot hold above 2418, we will look for a move to retest strong support at 2400. A strong break below this level could see the S&P spike to 2392, and a close below this level could see this market trade 2386 by week’s end.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7686 ( +117 or +1.55% ) The Aussie Dollar continues to rally. The question now is will this market continue to rally post Tuesday’s RBA meeting or are we set for a top? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 11:30 – Building Approvals Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Thur 11:30 – Trade Balance For a move higher we must now hold above 0.7662. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7729. A break and close above this level is likely to result in a move to 0.7797 before a pause; however if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833. If we cannot hold above 0.7662, we will look for a retest of 0.7617. A strong break and close below this level could see 0.7617, and below this our next level is back down to 0.7561. Should we see a very strong reversal to the downside a move to 0.7489 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.1419 ( +227 or +2.03% ) The EURO has finally broken out of its month long consolidation and has all but reached our 1.1453 level. Unlike last week this week is very quiet and it will be interesting to see how sentiment shapes this market. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Fri – Sat ALL DAY – G20 Meetings For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close 1.1453 on its way to testing 1.1496. Should this occur we could see a very strong move to 1.1613 before a pause. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1453, we will watch for a move back down to 1.1347. A break below this level could see this market trade down to 1.1281, and further breaks to the downside may result in a move to 1.1201.
GBP/USD – 1.3027 ( +309 or +2.43% ) The Pound continues to confirm our scenario shown last month and we are now approaching some key resistance areas. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI Tue 18:30 – Construction PMI Wed 18:30 – Services PMI Fri 18:30 – Manufacturing Production Fri 18:30 – Trade Balance For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable break strongly above 1.3035 on its way to testing 1.3085 before a potential pause. However a strong and close above this level could see the Pound rally into 1.3277. If we fail to close above 1.3085, we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level could then see this market trade back into 1.2720 before a pause. If momentum is strong and we break and close below 1.2720, we could see a sharp move lower into 1.2600.
USD/JPY – 112.41 ( +113 or +1.02% ) The YEN continues to grind higher and is now in a very interesting position given the ‘relative’ weakness of the $US dollar. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 09:50 – Tankan Manufacturing Index Mon 09:50 – Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index For a continued move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 112.88. If we can break and close above this level, we would see a strong move into 113.87 – 114.08, and if momentum is very strong a move higher into 114.52 cannot be ruled out by week’s end. If we cannot hold above 111.73, we will look for a retest of 111.09 on the downside. A break and close below this level could see the YEN fall lower into the key area between 110.10 – 109.94. If momentum remains strong, we cannot rule out a move to 109.21.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1241 ( -15 or -1.19% ) GOLD has spent most of the week in a sideways range and we have already been watching a breakout scenario (up or down). For a continued move higher we would like to see this market break strongly above 1247. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 1257. A strong break and close above this level could then see GOLD rally into our key 1276 – 1278 area. If Gold cannot break above 1247, we will look for a move back down into 1235. A strong break below this level could see a move down into 1222, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we will look for further downside into 1216.
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