This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5274 ( + 175 or + 3.43% )
The ASX rebounded strongly last week after an initial very heavy downside move which would have shaken out a lot of longs. It looks like the markets are getting a little volatile for some.
For the upmove to continue after last weeks strong comeback we would like to see 5319 broken early in the week followed by a strong long up bar through 5366. Once this occurs then we could see the ASX back up near the area between 5441 – 62 which also completes the range set back in June 2015.
If the ASX cannot hold onto last weeks move and struggles to move higher we would like to see a strong downside break reaching 5150 before pushing down towards 5095. If we see further panic selling then the move towards 5050 will be quick and has the potential to reach 4976 and 4922 very quickly.
EUROPE
DAX – 10302 ( + 277 or + 2.76% )
The DAX was also not immune to the heavy downside moves last week followed by a strong rebound. It is obvious that the markets are getting a little edgy with all that is going on around the world.
If the DAX continues its strong run from last week then we need to see a strong break past 10473 early in the week reaching 10684. Then we need to see a strong momentum break and close through both 10793 and 10868. If this occurs then we will discuss further upside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the DAX restarts lower then we will be looking for a break below 10258 before reaching 10146. Once this occurs we would like to see continued downside pressure breaking through both 10075 and 100035. This could then lead the DAX back down to 9896 followed by 9829 finally reaching 9745 before finding temporary support. If this level is broken with strong momentum then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 1988 ( + 16 or + 0.81% )
Ping Pong over or is it? Heavy falls followed by sharp reversal. I’m sure this market has tested everyone.
For the upward move to continue on from last week we would like to see a strong long up bar break through 2010 before reaching 2024. Once this occurs we would like to see the all important area between 2040 – 46 broken with strong momentum.
If the S&P finds it hard to stay above 1981 and another downleg occurs we would see the area between 1957 – 47 broken early in the week followed by a strong push down towards 1927. If this level is also broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7169 ( – 143 or – 1.96% )
“Always BE PREPARED.”
The ASX has showed us why we should be prepared for breaks either side.
If the AUD has any chance of a move higher then we would like to see a strong break back above 7262 early in the week before bouncing back towards 7407.
If we see a continued move lower then a strong break and close past 7116 could see the AUD reach 6957 quickly. If the downside momentum is strong then expect 6809 and 6761.
EUR.USD – 11180 ( – 208 or – 1.83% )
After a massive rally on Monday the EUR just collapsed moving over 550+ points for the week from high to low.
If the EUR regains its composure and tries to rally again then we need to 11166 hold as a strong level of support before an early break back above 11315 is achieved. Once this occurs we need to a strong long up bnar break and close past 11395 before reaching 11471. Dare I say it that we could see the EUR back near 11666 for a complete reversal?
If the EUR breaks down past 11166 early in the week we could see 11038 quickly. A break through 11038 could see our downside FICM level of 10925.
GBP.USD – 15390 ( – 294 or – 1.87% )
The GBP suffered a similar fate to the EUR as it moved higher early and then down she goes like a sack of potatoes. Not much more to say.
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see 15458 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15533. We would then like to see a long up bar break and close through 15533 before further up moves towards 15549, 15591 and 15644 are seen. If this occurs then we will discuss further upside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For the down move to continue we would like to see a strong break and close past 15366 before reaching 15280. If the downside momentum is strong then a break past 15250 could see 15140 which would complete the downside range set in March 2015.
USD.JPY – 12174 ( – 31 or – 0.25% )
With the USD falling over 400 points in one day we will say it again.
“It is an Interesting time for the FED as it is caught between a rock and a hard place”
Raise rates – risk of complete market meltdown
Keep rates on hold – high possibility of (dare I say it) QE4?
As the rebound was strong and the pair closed on 31 points lower our comments from last week remain the same.
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see our FICM level of 12151 hold as a strong level of support before push back above 12225. Once this occurs then 12275 could be seen on its way up before 12332 is reached. We would then need to see a long up bar break and close past 12332 if the USD has any chance of a continued move higher.
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see a strong break and close past 12151 before reaching 12064 and possibly the July 2015 low of 12041. If this occurs and the momentum is still strong then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1133 ( – 27 or – 2.33% )
I think last week confused the GOLD bugs. It looks like we need a market meltdown for GOLD to rally. (Safe haven Play)
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see a strong break early past 1134 before reaching 1149 again. Once this occurs then the area between 1161 – 67 will play a major role is allowing a push high towards 1178.
For GOLD to continue back down, 1134 needs to hold as strong resistance before a strong move down towards 1103 occurs. This could then lead to 1091 and possibly 1069.
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