This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5938 ( +115 or +1.97% ) A big fade on Friday following PM Malcom Turnbull’s surprise majority loss saw the market post a big reversal during after hours. That is some kind of bar we have now which should make for a very interesting week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance Thu 11:30 – Building Approvals Fri 11:30 – Retail Sales For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5921. Should this occur we will look for a move to 5985. A break through this level could see a retest of 6000; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6140. If the ASX cannot hold above 5921, we will look for a move back down to 5823. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5777, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see further moves down to 5746 and 5705.
EUROPE DAX – 13216 ( +224 or +1.72% ) The DAX is again at all time highs. Who said the European bull market is over, not yet! NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday in Germany (Reformation Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:00 – German Retail Sales Mon 18:00 – German Prelim CPI For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX hold above 13205. Should this occur we will look for a strong move this week into 13388 and 13520. If the DAX fails to hold above 13205, we may see a push lower back into the key 13050 level. A close below this level could then see a quick move down into 12921 and 12882.
US SP500 – 2580 ( +4 or +0.16% ) Like the DAX, the S&P is also at all-time highs and until sentiment changes it is blue skies ahead. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 00:45 – Chicago PMI Wed 01:00 – CB Consumer Confidence Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI Fri 11:30 – NFP – LIVE TV Sat 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2574. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2590. If momentum is very strong and we break through 2590 easily, we cannot rule out a fast move to 2628. If we cannot hold above 2574, we will look for a move back down to 2562. A break below this may likely see a retest of 2550 and 2540, and if momentum is very strong on the downside we could see a sell-off into 2524.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7675 ( -138 or -1.77% ) The Aussie Dollar sold off aggressively last week only to find support on Friday as indicated to members in our Member Portal. We will be discussing this market again in detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 11:30 – Trade Balance Thu 11:30 – Building Approvals Fri 11:30 – Retail Sales For a move higher we must now hold above 0.7662. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7729. A break and close above this level is likely to result in a move to 0.7797 before a pause; however if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833. If we cannot hold above 0.7662, we will look for a retest of 0.7617. A strong break and close below this level could see 0.7617, and below this our next level is back down to 0.7561. Should we see a very strong reversal to the downside a move to 0.7489 cannot be ruled out. EUR/USD – 1.1607 ( -181 or -1.54% ) The EURO has broken to to the downside following last week’s expected ECB tapering announcement. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday in France and Italy (All Saints Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:00 – German Retail Sales Mon 18:00 – German Prelim CPI Tue 21:00 – Flash CPI (annual) Tue 21:00 – Flash GDP (quarterly) For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1613, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347. GBP/USD – 1.3128 ( -60 or -0.45% ) Cable spent the majority of last week in a sideways range between two of our key levels, and as such our levels remain unchanged this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 20:30 – Manufacturing PMI Wed 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV Wed 23:30 – BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Conference For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable break and close back above 1.3277. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3309 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3534. If we cannot break above 1.3277, we will look for a move lower back down to 1.3085 – 1.3035 before a pause. Should we break this level, we cannot rule out a move lower into 1.2868.
USD/JPY – 113.67 ( +16 or +0.14% ) The $/YEN was only marginally higher last week and this week is again another important week on the calendar for this market. NOTE: Friday is a public holiday in Japan (Culture Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 13:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market close above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 114.52. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 115.54, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 116.08. If we cannot close above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 we could see very sharp into 111.09 .
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1274 ( -6 or -0.47% ) Gold is now at an interesting double bottom and we now pose the question: Is the downside move in Gold over are will there be more selling to come? For a continued move higher we would like to see this market close above 1278, followed by a retest of 1294. A strong break above 1294 could see this market head back up to 1303, and if momentum remains strong we could see a move into 1313 before another pause. If Gold cannot close above 1278, we will look for a strong move back down into 1263 and 1257. A break and close below this level could then result in a move to 1247 before the week’s end.
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