This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4863 ( +122 or +2.57% )
The ASX managed to stage a small recovery last week as we head into another interesting week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 4720, followed by a push back above 5050. Should this occur we will look for a move into 5325, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 5921.
If the ASX cannot gold above 4720, we will look for a move back down to 4537. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest lower into 4267, and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 4120.
EUROPE
DAX – 9580 ( +963 or +11.18% )
The DAX managed to regain some strength and the question this week is can this market hold this move?
For a sustained move to the upside we would like to see 9248 hold as support and see a strong close back above 9888. If momentum to the upside remains strong we could see a fast move up to 10262 before a break.
On the downside we are watching for a break and close below 9248. A strong break and close below this level could extend the DAX down to 9092. Further breaks below this level could see the DAX head to 9016. If momentum remains strong we could see a very quick move to 8890 before a pause.
US
SP500 – 2530 ( +250 or +10.96% )
The S&P also managed to rally higher with a very strong bounce but can this market sustain this? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:45 – Chicago PMI
Wed 01:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Fri 23:30 – Non-Farm Unemployment
Sat 01:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 2620 followed by a retest of 2720. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2736 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2758, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2838.
If we cannot hold above 2620, we could see this market continue to sell-off whilst it remains below 2600. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2408; and a close below this level may result in a very fast move down to 2322 and 2190.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6166 ( +366 or +6.31% )
The Aussie Dollar was also very weak last week on the back of more stimulus from government bodies. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6092. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6456, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6592 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6092, we could see this market break lower and test 0.5980. If momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.5865 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.1139 ( +442 or +4.13% )
The EURO has retracted all of its gains from last month following the outbreak in Europe.
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1117 on its way to retesting 1.1249. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.1346; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1496.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1117, we could see a move back down into 1.1033. If this market continues to sell-off a move lower into 1.0977 is very possible; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a fast and sharp move down into 1.0902 and 1.0814.
GBP/USD – 1.2457 ( +815 or +7% )
Cable was also down last week as the UK battles with the coronavirus heading into yet another important week.We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – Current Account
Fri 19:30 – Final Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.2297 followed by a close above 1.2480. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2622, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a push higher into 1.2720 and 1.2860.
If the Pound cannot hold above 1.2297, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2195. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.2000, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1896.
USD/JPY – 107.96 ( -278 or -2.51% )
They $/YEN was stronger as markets look for a safe haven.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 107.75, on its way to retesting 108.31 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.21, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 109.94.
If we cannot hold above 107.75, we could see a fast move lower into 107.36. A break below this level may result in a retest of 106.52 before a pause; however any breaks below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 105.50.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1621 ( +125 or +8.36% )
Yet again Gold remains volatile in a large sideways range and we are watching this market closely now.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1648. Should this occur we could see a strong move to 1675; and any break of this level could see a stronger move to 1687.
If Gold cannot close above 1648, we will look for a move back down to 1615. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1574; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1550.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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