This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6214 ( -18 or -0.29% ) The ASX spent the majority of last week consolidating in a narrow sideways range. This is an important week for this market and we will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales Wed 11:30 – Trade Balance For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we may see a stronger move into 6345. If the ASX cannot hold above 6206, we will look for a move back down to 6140 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6070, and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move all the way back down to 5985. EUROPE DAX – 12284 ( -269 or -2.14% ) The DAX continues to be sold off and the question now is- can this market rebound this week?. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 21:15 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12384 followed by a move into 12566. Should this occur, a break of this level could result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830. If the DAX fails to close and hold above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044.
US SP500 – 2718 ( -35 or -1.27% ) Following a strong move down last Monday the S&P also spent the majority of the week consolidating. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday in the US (Independence Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI Fri 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Fri 04:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close and hold above 2736. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2760 level. A strong break and close above this level however could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2802 and 2808. If we cannot hold above 2736, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2704 before a pause. A break of this level however may result in sharp moves down into 2680 and 2660.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7406 ( -33 or -0.44% ) The Aussie Dollar also continues to consolidate as we head into a week full of economic releases. We will be discussing this market extensively in the MEMBER PORTAL. . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales Wed 11:30 – Trade Balance For a move higher we would like to see the AUD close above 0.7447, followed by a break and close above 0.7489. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7561 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7617. If we cannot close above 0.7447, we will look for a move back down to 0.7364. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7282 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7229. EUR/USD – 1.1685 ( +29 or +0.25% ) Has the EURO found buyers for a major LOW in place? Or will this market continue to sell off? For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1613 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1738 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1738 could result in a fast move to 1.1822. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1613, we could see a fast move down into 1.1496. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1453; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1347.
GBP/USD – 1.3205 ( -57 or -0.43% ) Like the EURO, Cable is also attempting to find buyers and this week is yet again another important week for this market. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 18:30 – Manufacturing PMI Tue 18:30 – Construction PMI Wed 18:30 – Services PMI For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3309. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3534 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3875. If we cannot close above 1.3309, we will look for a quick move down into 1.3111. A break of this level may result in a retest of 1.3035; however any subsequent break could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868. Should the downside momentum continue, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2720. USD/JPY – 110.69 ( +70 or +0.64% ) As the $/YEN continues to hover between the key 110 – 111 figures, we continue to watch this market closely for signs of a strong directional move. For a move to the upside we must now see this market close strongly through 111.09. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out. If we cannot close above 111.09, we will look for another quick retest of 109.94. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.21, and if the downside remains strong we could see a strong sell-off into 108.31.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1252 ( -17 or -1.34% ) GOLD has sold off for the third straight week but did manage to find support at our key 1245 level. For a continued move higher we would like to see this market close above 1260. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1276-1278 before a pause. A strong break above 1278 may likely result in a move to 1285; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 1294.. If Gold cannot close above 1260, we will look for a move back down to 1245. A break below this level however could result in a very sharp move down to 1238, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1222.
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