This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5559 ( – 34 or – 0.61% )
The ASX moved higher early in the week before topping out just above 5700. Then it moved down very fast reaching low 5500’s were we saw a repeat of the previous week’s action:
“which saw buyers come into the market very quickly around the 5500 area which we mentioned last week would “be very important in determining the next direction for the ASX”
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5595 broken early in the week followed by a strong long up bar break and close above 5636 before pushing towards 5715 and then 5754. Once these levels are broken we could see the ASX reach 5789 which would complete the range.
For the downward move to restart we would like to see an early break and close past 5541 before reaching 5524 and 5505. Once this is broken the ASX will could find support near the area between 5463 – 44 again. If the world markets take a leg down then we could see the ASX extend towards 5367.
EUROPE
DAX – 11532 ( + 516 or + 4.68% )
De-ja Vue:
Another wild ride for the DAX traders last week with a 500+ point move.
The Greeks keep kicking the can down the road.
There is so much to say about this scenario but we won’t as ‘it is what it is’.
Expect more Volatility this week. Therefore we will provide some outrages extension both on the long and short side.
For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see 11621 broken early in the week pushing towards 11791 and 11868 with strong momentum. A strong break past 11868 could push the DAX back above 12015 again.
While writing this report on Sunday Greece continues to be a problem with Tsipras asking the public to decide (nice way to put the blame on someone else) this could send the DAX in a bit of a Free Fall again reaching 11373 before settling near the area between 11292 – 57. If the move lower has strong momentum then the levels we will be watching closely will be 11163, 11080 and 10941 and finally 10869.
US
S&P – 2104 ( – 4 or – 0.19% )
Another rally past 2112 for the S&P shows signs that the market would like to go up.
Then Greece came back into the picture and we are now back below 2112 but more importantly above 2100 for now (but maybe not for long).
As we have only closed a few points lower our comments remain the same
The two important levels that the S&P needs to break this week are 2112 and 2126. If the upward momentum is strong we could see 2137 broken with a long up bar reaching 2148. If the upward momentum is strong we will be watching 2173, 2180 and a possible extension towards 2191.
If the S&P breaks 2101 early we could see 2085 and 2076 once again. If the downside moves become aggressive then the area between 2050 – 46 could be seen. We will also mention 2033 as an over extension just incase.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7654 ( – 117 or – 1.51% )
Some rangebound trading going on in the AUD before a strong move either way atm.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see strong support at 7635 before moving towards 7718 again. If the upward momentum maintains then 7778 could be seen.
Our downside comments remain the same:
For the longer term downside move to continue a strong break past 7635 could see the AUD in a bit of a FREE FALL reaching 7498 very quickly. If the move is strong then it extend towards 7407.
EUR.USD – 11163 ( – 185 or – 1.63% )
The EUR moved lower as our FICM level of 11396 stopped it in its tracks, a little help from Tsipras probably helped a little.
Expect the unexpected this week with the EUR pairs.
If the EUR is to move back up again we would like to see strong support at this level before pushing back past 11315 and finally reaching 11396 again. We will then like to see a strong long up bar break through this level if we are going to reach 11471.
If the EUR struggles to stay above 11166 then a clean break past 11038 will see the EUR back down near 10941 and 10899. If these levels are broken with a long down bar then 10780 could be seen quickly and possibly extending to 10590.
GBP.USD – 15745 ( – 129 or – 0.81% )
The GBP fell away early last week breaking back down through the Standard Deviation Channel settling near our FICM level of 15744.
For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see 15744 become a strong level of support before a push towards 15834 is made. Once this level is broken and if the momentum is strong then we could see 16030 followed by 16100 then onto 16160 which will complete the range.
For the down move to restart then we would like to see 15744 become a difficult level to break
This could then lead the GBP towards 15643. Once this is broken we could see the pair settle near the area between 15591 – 49. If the downward momentum is strong then we could see the pair extend down towards 15457.
USD.JPY – 12388 ( + 120 or + 0.98% )
The USD moved higher last week but not with the same enthusiasm as in May and early June.
For the USD to continue its longer term rally we need to see a strong up bar break through 12403 before reaching 12464. Once this level is broken we could see the pair near 12558 testing the last month’s highs.
For this pair to move back down we need to see a strong move past the area between 12346 – 24 before reaching 12275. Once this level is broken we could see 12225. If the downward momentum is strong then we will be watching the area between 12184 – 52 very closely for support.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1175 ( – 25 or – 2.08% )
People just don’t love GOLD anymore. If they could wear Facebook around their neck they would.
For the upward move to continue we would like to see an early break past 1177 – 80 before pushing back towards 1192 and possibly 1208.
For the down move to restart and continue the area between 1180 – 78 needs to become a solid level of resistance before GOLD reaches 1167 and finally 1161 again. If we see continued downward momentum then 1149 will not be far away.
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