This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6819 (+138 or +2.07%)
The ASX is within an arm’s reach of all-time highs. Can we break out this week? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
Fri 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6804. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6850. A strong break of this level however is likely to see the ASX rally to new all-time highs into 6905, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 7011.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6804, we will look for a move back down to 6720. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6650 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6544.
EUROPE
DAX – 12430 (+191 or 1.56%)
The DAX managed to recover slightly last week despite a strong sell-off on the ECB Interest Rate Announcement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – German Prelim CPI
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12374. Should this occur we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move to 12921.
If the DAX fails to close above 12374, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.
US
SP500 – 3021 (+53 or +1.79%)
With the S&P again at all time highs, how far can this market run? Can the market hold here or will we see sellers become more aggressive? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Wed 00:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 23:45 – Chicago PMI
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Fri 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Employment – LIVE TV
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3003. Should this occur we will look for a move to 3066. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3140.
If we cannot hold above 3003, we could see this market retest 2985. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2960; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2941.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6910 (-134 or -1.9%)
The Aussie Dollar underperformed last week as participants hint at potentially lower prices going forward.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
Fri 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6875. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.6958 and 0.7104 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6875, we will look for a move lower into 0.6830. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6761; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6706.
EUR/USD – 1.1128 (-93 or -0.83%)
The Euro was also weaker and is now testing a very critical support level. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – German Prelim CPI
Wed 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see another retest down into 1.1117 before another pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2383 (-122 or 0.98%%)
Cable was also weaker as uncertainty remains around the capability of the newly appointed UK PM.For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2622, followed by a retest of 1.2720 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a stronger move into 1.3035.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2480. A strong break and close above this level should see a retest of 1.2622, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2720.
On the downside, if the Pound cannot get above 1.2384 we could see further downside into 1.2297. A break below this level however paves the way for a strong move lower into 1.2100.
USD/JPY – 108.67 (+96 or +0.89%)
The $/YEN remains in a choppy, large sideways range; can we break out this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.
If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1418 (-7 or -0.49%)
Gold is also in a sustained sideways range and as such our levels remain unchanged.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1416. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1433; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1450.
If Gold cannot hold above 1416, we will look for a move back down into 1402. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1393, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1374.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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