This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
For a more detailed day-to-day overview of the markets and trade opportunities you need to become a client of Trade View Investments.
We may take multiple trades throughout the week. Currently Trade View is light Net Short.
AUSTRALASIAN SESSION
ASX – 5106
The ASX has had a nice rally off 4902 and continued towards 5126 which has created a potential resistance level. But the strength of this move could still continue if 5126 is broken this week. If it breaks this level with strength, we would look for a potential target of 5301.
If 5126 proves to be difficult to break then a move back down towards 4902 could prove to be the start of the seasonal down move as the month of May is fast-approaching.
EUROPEAN SESSION
FTSE – 6419
The FTSE has also made a move past previous levels of interest, mainly 6307, which is now showing its purpose and really trying to become a support level.
The current move up has occurred with some strength, but fell short of breaking 6434 with strength. It reached a high of 6466 and then retreated to current levels. If the full up move is to play out then it would need to continue early and with the same strength. If so, we will look for 6654 if momentum continues.
Once again, we need to be cautious, because if the strength of the move slows down, then we could see 6079 again as previous attempts at breaking current levels was met with resistance.
DAX – 7821
The Dax has made the same type of move as most of its counterparts and this is why we always trade NET positions rather than solely directional.
Every level signaled by our proprietary trading models is monitored carefully, and bounces off key levels like 7435 are addressed and targets such as 7811 are noted.
The current move has indicated to be strong as it is only half way through its potential extension and for this to continue we would be monitoring 8160 as the next potential level.
If the move proves to be short-lived after an initial bounce or potential resistance at 8007, then 7436 could be tested again. But this should only occur if the down moves are strong and if May of 2012 is any indication, then 7221 could be the target.
CAC – 3809
Most of our targets were met by the CAC last week and it made its move past 3793 which was one of the levels it needed to break on its way down in March.
There are a few levels to look for if the momentum is to continue, mainly 3853 which was the high of the current move. If it breaks through this then further upside is very possible.
For the down move to occur breaking through 3793 needs to happen in the first few days, otherwise it might find it difficult. If it occurs then 3572 will be monitored.
US SESSION
S&P – 1581
The S&P looks like its trying to gain some type of momentum on the upside but it’s finding it difficult with the USD.JPY not being able to break 100 and US treasuries sitting near 149.00.
For the S&P to break past 1600 a couple of things will need to happen. The USD.JPY needs to break 100 and/or US Treasuries need to fall back down. If these don’t occur then breaking 1600 might be short lived. Some good economic news might help as well.
As always, US Treasuries will be monitored to see the potential direction of this market in the coming weeks. Breaking 150.00 could make the move down on the S&P very quick and ruthless.
NASDAQ – 2839
The Nasdaq has once again come to a certain level and then paused. The last time it did this was 10 April 2013 where it reached its plateau and then took a dive down. When there are no clear moves it tends to lead to a bottoming or a topping effect. However, we are definitely not calling the top.
The current aggressive up move needs to continue with some forcefulness and needs to break through 2876, otherwise it could find itself back down near 2695.
Short term levels we will be watching are 2850 on the upmove and 2830 on the downside.
FX MARKETS
AUD.USD – 10275
The AUD tried hard to break back up through 10353 but was met with resistance and settled at last weeks numbers.
Once again 10353 is playing an important role in this currency’s trading and for the time being should be watched carefully.
The current down move is heading towards our target of 10182 and could be reached this week unless something occurs to help with the AUD strength.
Any upside breaks past short term resistance of 10301 could be stopped by 10353.
EUR.USD – 13028
The EUR found support near 12949 with a low of 12954 and moved up only slightly indicating indecision and maybe an attempt at breaking below 12927 – a level of support we mentioned last week. If this occurs then we could see 12806 reached.
If the move is to the upside then a short term resistance of 13078 needs to break which could lead to 13230 being reached, but again the moves need to have strength behind them with long continuous bars.
GBP.USD – 15470
15185 did act as a strong support level and catapulted the past previous resistance levels of 15324 – 15352.
This move is showing signs of being in its early stages and it could make a serious attempt at a medium target of 15685. But it will need to break through a potential short term resistance of 15504 with the same strength it had to break through 15352.
If 15504 is not broken, then a move back to 15362 could act as a support level, but if not then 15185 will play its part again.
USD.JPY – 9802
The JPY struggled to break 100 again which is concerning for the short term, as if key levels are not broken early in the moves, then most of the times they find it difficult unless some great news comes out.
Short term levels to watch are 9783 and 9625 on the way down and on the way up 9877 and 9941.
Note: Call Options for 100 strike were cheap early and then became expensive towards the end of the week.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1462
Last week’s view was that Gold was in an upmove and it produced some solid moves.
Our short term target of 1455 was reached and we revised levels for our members to 1470 which was also reached with a high of 1485.
This week we will looking for momentum to continue and have set a target of 1480 again in the short term. If this level is broken with momentum then we will look for 1504, but we stress caution that if 1452 is broken on the downside then it’s possible will will see 1431.
We will be looking at the current moves and try to monitor constantly and as mentioned last week “be on your feet and think quick.”
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 9285
After the previous weeks down moves LIGHT CRUDE has shown its strength again and bounced straight off our 8567 support level with a low of 8560 and then rallied through all previous levels mentioned. It broke through 90.18 and reached our target level of 9347 which we shared with our members, and reached a high of 9385.
If the strength of the current upmove continues then we would like to see 9469 broken before our medium target of 9744 is reached.
If the 9469 proves to be too much to break then a short term support level of 9163 will try to hold it up.
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