This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5042 ( – 43 or – 0.85% )
The ASX moved sideways once again, wait for the major breaks.
As the ASX closed only a few points lower our comments remain the same.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5050 area hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking and closing past 5150 occurs. If the momentum continues strong then we could see 5217 reached. Once this occurs and we see a strong move then 5270 and 5319 are not out of the question.
If the ASX continues down through the 5050 area early in the week then the downward process could reach 4976 and 4922 very quickly. Once this level is broken the 4863 could be seen just as fast. If the downward momentum is strong then the lows of AUG and 4754 will play a pivotal role in deciding the next direction of the ASX. If this level is broken with strong momentum then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 9608 ( – 345 or – 3.47% )
It just does not stop for the European markets and the DAX is no exception:
First – Flood of refugees – Money is needed to look after them
Second – No rate cut by the Fed – indicating weaker economies
Third – VW scandal
They say back luck comes in three’s and this is no exception. So is the worst over? or is there more to come?
For the upmove to restart the DAX we need to see the Aug 2015 lows hold followed by a strong break and close past 9747.Once this occurs then we need to see another strong up bar through 9829 and 9896 reaching 10035. If the upward momentum is strong past this level then we will discuss further upside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the down move is to take another leg down then a strong break past 9470 could lead the DAX down testing the AUG 2015 lows of 9321. If 9321 is broken with a long down bar then 9160 could be seen. If the downward momentum is strong then 8917 will be the last level of potential support before the DAX moves into a FREE FALL scenario. If this occurs then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 1926 ( – 32 or – 1.63% )
The S&P is really struggling at the moment.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see 1901 hold as a strong level of support before pushing back past 1927 and towards the 1947 – 57 area. Once this occurs we would need to see a long up bar break through towards the area between 1981 – 90. If the momentum is strong then 2010 here we come.
If the S&P fails to stay above 1927 then a break down past 1901 could see 1882 quickly followed by 1869, 1857 and finally a test of the AUG 2015 low of 1834. If 1834 is also broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7026 ( – 163 or – 2.27% )
The AUD really likes that 70 cent level.
If the AUD is to continue its move higher then we would like to see a strong break and close past 7116. Once this occurs it will need to become a solid level of support before another attempt at closing above 7263 can occur. Once this occurs then 7330 would complete the upside range.
If the AUD cannot break back above 7116 then we would see it retrace back down to 6957. If this level does not hold then we would look for a move down towards 6893 followed by 6809 and 6761.
EUR.USD – 11196 ( – 102 or – 0.90% )
As silly as it might have sounded Mario Draghi’s tactics may just work and pay off.
With all that is going on in the Eurozone, he probably needs to keep easing for longer which should make the EURO go down.
If the EUR regains its composure and tries to rally again then we need to 11166 hold as a strong level of support before an early break back above 11315 is achieved. Once this occurs we need to a strong long up bnar break and close past 11395 before reaching 11471.
If the EUR breaks down past 11166 early in the week we could see 11038 quickly. A break through 11038 could see our downside FICM level of 10925.
GBP.USD – 15178 ( – 343 or – 2.21% )
Chop, Chop goes the GBP.
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see 15248 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15364 followed by 15456.
For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15139. If this occurs then we see 14950 as being the next level reached before settling near 14832.
USD.JPY – 12058 ( + 60 or + 0.50% )
Last week we were down 60 this week up 60.
Watch for the break. The two levels we are watching are: 12151 Upside, 11867 Downside.
ONCE AGAIN – Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past 12064 before moving towards 12151. Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1146 ( + 7 or + 0.61% )
“It looks like we need a market meltdown for GOLD to rally. (Safe haven Play)”
I will keep this comment here until it is not valid anymore.
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see 1141 hold as strong support before another push past 1149 is made. Once this occurs then the area between 1161 – 67 will play a major role is allowing a push high towards 1178.
For GOLD to reverse and come back down we would like to see a strong break and close past 1141 and 1134 before pushing past 1123 and 1111 reaching 1103. Continued strong downward momentum past 1103 could then lead to 1091 and possibly 1069.
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