This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5523 ( – 143 or – 2.52% )
The ASX popped its head above 5700 for a little and then went down and just did not recover. We are seeing V shape reversal lately with no clear trend.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see the ASX break and close past 5541 early in the week. Once this occurs 5541 needs to become a solid level of support before moving towards 5595. If the momentum continues strong then 5636 will come back into play.
If the ASX continues to gain traction then a solid break past 5505 early in the week could see it near the area between 5463 – 44 again. This level will be important in deciding the next move for the ASX. If it is broken with strong momentum we will discuss it in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 11304 ( – 375 or – 3.21% )
The DAX struggled like the other world markets last week and moved lower after an initial attempt at an upward break. Nothing has fundamentally changed since the Greek bailout approval.
For the upmove to continue we would like to see 11373 broken early in the week pushing the DAX to 11537. Once this occurs 11631 needs to be broken early followed by a strong push towards 11791 with a possible extension to 11868.
If the downside restarts then the levels we will be watching closely (depending on momentum) will be 11292 – 57, 11163, 11080, 10941, 10867. If 10867 is broken this week we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 2085 ( – 40 or – 1.88% )
The S&P tried to reach new all time highs but fell short by only a few points. Then down she goes closing at the yearly mean price of 2085 after reaching a high deviation of 3.28.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see a V shape reversal once again moving the S&P through 2101 again before another attempt at breaking 2112 before pushing for new all time highs again.
If the S&P cannot get back above 2100 early this week then a break past 2076 could see the area between 2050 – 46 tested before a strong push down towards 2033 and 2024.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7284 ( – 87 or – 1.18% )
“The AUD is in a bit of a downward spiral atm and with possible rate hikes by the US Fed expect it to continue.”
For the upmove to restart we would like to see a strong break and close back above 7407 before reaching 7494. If the momentum is strong then we could see 7635.
For the downside move to continue then an early long down bar could see 7263 followed by 7116 which is now in line with levels back in early 2009.
EUR.USD – 10977 ( + 149 or + 1.38% )
With Greece sorted the EUR is now trying to find its true direction. expect more uncertain moves over the coming months.
If the EUR is to continue its move higher then we would like to see our FICM level of 10925 hold as a strong level of support before a break past 11038 is made. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see 11166.
If the down move is to restart then a strong long down bar break and close past 10925 could see the EUR reach 10780. This could then start a FREE FALL reaching 10590.
GBP.USD – 15504 ( – 99 or – 0.63% )
The GBP moved slightly lower last week after a sideways move. It reached a low of 15466 (which was only 8 points high then our FICM level of 15458) before finding support and then bouncing .
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see early breaks past 15549 and 15591 before reaching 15644. 15644 will then need to broken with a long up bar before reaching our FICM level of 15744.
For the down move to continue we would like to see another strong break past our FICM level of 15458. This would then need to push the pair back down towards 15366. If 15366 is broken this week we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
USD.JPY – 12381 ( – 25 or – 0.20% )
Last week saw side ways move for this pair.
For the USD to continue its longer term rally we need to see a strong up bar break through 12464 before reaching 12558 again and testing the highs of June 2015.
For this pair to move back down we need to see a strong move back past the area 12346-24 before reaching 12275. if this too is broken then we could see 12225.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1099 ( – 35 or – 3.09% )
Gold took a dive early last week and that’s all she wrote.
For the upward move to even stand a slight chance of occurring we would like to see 1134 reached early in the week. If this occurs then we will discuss further up moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Now that we saw the FREE FALL of GOLD early in the week, continued downside moves could occur if 1069 is broken. This could send GOLD down towards 1043 and possibly 1025.
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