This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 7068 ( -40 or -0.56% )
The ASX made yet another all-time high however finished the week poorly having failed at our all important level of 7144. Is this a warning sign..? NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Australia (Australia Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly) For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close 7062. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 7144. A strong break of this level could see the ASX rally into 7192, and if momentum remains very strong we may see a move into 7286. If the ASX cannot close above 7062, we will look for a move back down to 7011. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6850 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6720.
EUROPE DAX – 13520 ( -17 or -0.13% )
The DAX is also struggling at key levels and with an important week ahead, we will be discussing this market this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM .
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 20:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Thu 19:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly) For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX hold above 13520. Should this occur we may see a fast move to 13697, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13787 and 13819. If the DAX fails to hold above 13520, we could see a move back down into 13388. A break below this level could mean a further move down into 13205, and if momentum is very strong we could see a fast move down to 13050.
US SP500 – 3290 ( -33 or -0.99% )
The S&P also pushed to new all-time highs this week but like the ASX and DAX, also failed at key technical levels. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence Thu 06:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement Thu 06:30 – FOMC Press Conference Fri 00:30 – Advance GDP (quarterly) Sat 01:45 – Chicago PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above above 3338. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3396 before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3450 and 3500! If we cannot close above 3338, we could see this market move lower into 3274. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3248; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3208 and 3116.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.6827 ( -46 or -0.67% )
The Aussie Dollar is still range bound despite more pressure from the sellers last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly) For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6800. A break of this level sets the stage for a move down to 0.6762; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a move into 0.6692.
EUR/USD – 1.1027 ( -62 or -0.56% )
The EURO was also down as we head into a very important week for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Fri 21:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual) For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1033 on its way to retesting 1.1117. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.1197; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off a move lower into 1.0902 is very possible; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a fast and sharp move down into 1.0814
GBP/USD – 1.3071 ( +65 or +0.5% )
Cable continues to coil and all eyes will be on this market this week.. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable close above 1.3110. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1.3277; and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a break of the key resistance at 1.3386. If Cable cannot close above 1.3110, we could see this market trade into 1.3035. A break of this level could see a quick move into 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a further move lower into 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 109.28 ( -88 or -0.8% )
The $/YEN has put in a short-term high as expected and we are watching this market for signs of continuation from last week. For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.21 and close above 109.94. Should this occur we will look for a move into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move to 110.78. If we cannot hold above 109.21, we could see a move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75 before a pause.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1571 ( +14 or +0.9% )
Gold once again consolidated sideways last week with signs the bulls are once again circling…
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1525, followed by a close above 1574. A break and close above this level sets the stage for a move to 1605; and if momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 1620.
If Gold cannot hold above 1525, we will look for a sharp move back down to 1504. This is a pivotal area; and any break below this level sets the stage for a much larger move down to 1485, 1474 and potentially 1460.
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