Market Brief

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES

 

AUSTRALASIA

 

ASX – 5311 ( -178 or -3.24% )

 

The ASX was lower last week following a sell-off early in the week. Can the bulls recover this week?. 

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)

 

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 5408 followed by a retest into 5590. Should this occur we will look for a move into 5746, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 5985.

If the ASX cannot close above 5408, we will look for a move back down to 5102. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest lower into 4820.

 

EUROPE

 

DAX – 10470 ( -231 or -2.16% )

 

The DAX was also lower however continues to consolidate at a key level. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 19:00 – Flash GDP (quarterly)
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference

 

For a move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 10266. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 10760. If the DAX can break strongly through this level, we will look for a move into 11050 and 11366.

If the DAX fails to close above 10266, we will look for a move back down to 10010 before a pause. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 9690, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move back down to 9450.

 

US

 

SP500 – 2836 ( -42 or -1.46% )

 

The S&P was flat last week despite closing lower; as we head into a very important week. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 22:30 – Advance GDP (quarterly)
Thu 00:00 – Pending Home Sales (monthly)
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Statement
Thu 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Unemployment Claims
Thu 23:45 – Chicago PMI
Sat 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P close above 2870, followed by a retest of the key 2902 level. Should this occur and we see strong momentum, a break above this level could see the market rally strongly into 2998.

If we cannot close above 2870, we could see this market sell-off into 2780. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2678; and a close below this level may result in a very fast move down to 2632 and 2478.

 

FOREX

 

AUD/USD – 0.6395 ( +89 or +1.41% )

 

The Aussie Dollar managed to recover slightly having put in an important base. 

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)

 

For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6282. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6456, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6592 before a pause.

 

If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6282, we could see this market break lower and retest 0.6092. If momentum to the downside is very strong, a move back down to 0.5980 cannot be ruled out.

 

EUR/USD – 1.0826 ( -45 or -0.41% )

 

The EURO bears continued their sell-off until Friday which saw the bulls defend an important level.

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 19:00 – Flash GDP (quarterly)
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference

 

For a move higher, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.0814 on its way to retesting 1.1033. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.1117; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1201.

 

If the EURO cannot close above 1.0814, we could see a move back down into 1.0652. If this market continues to sell-off a move lower into 1.0525 is very possible; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a fast and sharp move down into 1.0480.

 

GBP/USD – 1.2365 ( -128 or -1.02% )

 

Cable had another quiet week and this market is now showing signs of a big move to come. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.

 

For a continued move to the upside, we need to see the Pound close above 1.2480. Should this occur we may see a move into 1.2720, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out further upside into 1.2868.

If the Pound cannot close above 1.2480, we could see a move lower back down to 1.2297. A break of this level however sets up for a move down to 1.2080; and if momentum to the downside is very strong 1.1896 cannot be ruled out.

 

USD/JPY – 107.48 ( -4 or -0.04% )

 

We are now on high alert for a breakout in the YEN and expect this to occur this week. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. 

 

NOTE: Wed is a holiday in Japan (Showa Day)

 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference

 

For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.21, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 109.94 and potentially 111.73.

 

If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a move lower into 106.52 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 105.50; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 104.97.

 

COMMODITIES

 

GOLD – 1726 ( +45 or +2.68% )

 

Gold continues its strength as it too tests a very important resistance area..

 

For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1724. Should this occur we could see a strong move to 1755; and any break of this level could see a stronger move to 1786.

 

If Gold cannot hold above 1724, we will look for a move back down to 1674. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1648; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1605.

 

 

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DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.

This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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