This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP
NOVEMBER – FULL
FEBRUARY 2016 – 2 SEATS LEFT
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5397 ( + 107 or + 2.02% )
Another early move lower the ASX before a bounce and strong rally towards 5400.
For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see 5366 become a strong level of support before a move back up past 5418 reaching the area between 5441 – 62. Once this area is broken we could see 5541 reached. If the momentum is strong then 5595 will come back into play.
If the ASX cannot get past the area between 5441 – 62 and we see a breakdown past 5366 the ASX could see itself near 5270 very quickly followed by 5217. If the downside momentum continues then we could see 5150 again.
EUROPE
DAX – 10820 ( + 699 or + 6.91% )
Once the DAX started it just kept going. Oh the fact that Mario Draghi indicated possible continued QE might have helped.
For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see a strong break and close past our FICM level of 10868. Once this occurs then we could see 10941 followed by 11080. Continued strong momentum could see the DAX push towards 11163 then 11257 and 11292 before it takes a breather.
For the down move to restart then 10868 needs to become a solid level of resistance before a push past 10793 and 10684. A break past 10684 could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318.
US
S&P – 2071 ( + 37 or + 1.82% )
The S&P does it again, up towards the area between 2046 – 50 area, then down it goes towards 2014 giving the shorts a little bite, then ……………………………POP before you know it 2071.
SHAKE and BAKE.
For the upward move to continue we would like to see and early break past 2085 before we see 2101 again. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see 2112 again.
If the S&P fails to break above 2085 we could see a strong move back down towards the key area between 2050 – 46 again. This are will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7216 ( – 48 or – 0.66% )
A slow moving week for the AUD. Therefore our comments remain the same.
If the AUD is to restart its move higher we would like to see another strong break and close past 7330 before making an attempt at breaking 7407. Once this level is broken then 7494 will come into play, as if it too is broken then 7635 is the next level.
Now that the range has been completed an early break past 7230 could trigger falls past 7177 and 7116 quickly. A strong break past 7116 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUR.USD – 11017 ( – 330 or – 2.91% )
Mario Draghi to the rescue?
For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see an early break back above 11038 before reaching 11166. Dare I say it that if the upward momentum gets traction then we see a complete FADE back to 11315?
If the EUR continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10925 before we see 10780.
GBP.USD – 15311 ( – 125 or – 0.81% )
The GBP followed the EUR lower after Mario Draghi’s comments.
For the GBP to restart its move higher we need to see a strong break back up above 15366 followed by a strong push past 15458.
For the down move to restart then a strong break past 15280 could see 15250 tested. This level will then need to be broken with a long down bar before testing the lows of 10 Oct 2015.
USD.JPY – 12145 ( + 201 or + 1.68% )
Now that the USD has broken the channel, let’s see if it can repeat the big moves we saw back in Oct 2012 and Aug 2014?
Watch for the break. The two levels we are watching are: 12151 Upside, 11867 Downside.
ONCE AGAIN – Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.”
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past. Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1164 ( – 12 or – 1.02% )
The GOLD rally is losing steam.
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see an early strong break and close past our FICM level of 1178. If the upward momentum is strong we could see GOLD near 1187 and 1197 with the possibility of seeing a 1200 print with the possible extension towards 1216
For GOLD to reverse and come back down we would like to see 1178 become a strong level of resistance before another break down past the area between 1161 – 67. Once this occurs then a leg back down past 1149 could see 1141 and 1134 quickly before pushing past 1123 and 1111 reaching 1103.
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