This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 5763 ( -215 or -3.6% ) The ASX sold off aggressively last week and we are now reaching a critical point. For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 5823. Should this occur we will look for a move to 5921 and 5985. A break through this level could see a retest of 6000; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6140. If the ASX cannot close above 5823, we will look for a move back down to 5746. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5703, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see further moves down to 5668.
EUROPE DAX – 11780 ( -612 or -4.94% ) The Dax is also at key technical levels and this week’s CPI numbers will be watched very closely. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 20:30 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Thu – German Prelim CPI (monthly) For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12115. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 12384. A strong break of this level could then see the DAX rally quickly to 12566; and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12714. If the DAX fails to close above 12115, we will look for a move down to 11755. However should this level break be prepared for a potentially strong move down into 11519.
US SP500 – 2596 ( -154 or -5.6% ) The S&P is at a critical level as we enter this important week. We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 01:00 – Consumer Confidence Wed 23:30 – Final GDP (quarterly) Thu 01:00 – Pending Home Sales (monthly) Fri 12:45 – Chicago PMI For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close hold above 2638. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 2660. A strong break and close above this level could see the S&P rally quickly to 2680, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out moves to 2720 and 2736. If we cannot hold above 2638, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2590 before a pause. A break below this level however could mean this market retraces lower into 2562; and a close below this level may see a retest of 2540. If the S&P closes below 2540 watch out- we could see a very sharp move into 2511 by the week’s end.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7696 ( -14 or -0.18% ) The AUD continues to find support at our key levels and we will be watching this market very closely this week to gauge buyer strength. For a move higher we must now see this market close back above 0.7729; followed by a retest of 0.7833.Should this occur we will look for this market to retest 0.7903; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move back up to 0.7988 and 0.8033. If we cannot close above 0.7729, we are likely to see a move lower into 0.7662. Should the downside momentum continue we could see a quick move into 0.7620; and if selling pressure is strong a move into 0.7600 cannot be ruled out. EUR/USD – 1.2352 ( +65 or +0.53% ) The EURO finished off last week with an even tighter range and we are again on alert for a breakout move in this market. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 20:30 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Thu – German Prelim CPI (monthly) For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2266 followed by a strong break through 1.2360. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2420; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2520. If the EURO cannot close above 1.2266, we could see a move back down 1.2165 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.2042 this week.
GBP/USD – 1.4132 ( +191 or +1.37% ) The Pound continues to rally as we discussed with members last week in the MEMBER PORTAL . Can the Pound continue to outperform this week? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 19:30 – Current Account Thu 19:30 – Final GDP For a move to the upside we would like to see Cable hold above 1.4075. A hold above this level may result in a move into 1.4194. Should momentum remain strong to the upside, we could see a move into 1.4223 by the week’s end. If we cannot hold above 1.4075 we could see a quick move down into 1.3875. A continued sell-off may see another move lower into 1.3743 – 1.3725 before a pause. However should we see a strong break below these levels we may see Cable quickly trade down into the important 1.3683 and 1.3654 area. USD/JPY – 104.73 ( -126 or -1.19% ) The $/YEN finally broke down last week and we now has a pathway for lower prices. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . For a continued move to the upside we would like to see this market hold above 103.99. Should this occur we will look for move to retest 104.97, and if momentum remains strong we cannot rule out a sharp move higher to 106.30. If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 103.99, we will look for a move back down to 103.21. A strong break below this level may see the $/JPY fade all the way back down to 102.29 before a pause. A strong break below these levels could see the USD/JPY very sharply break down to 100.61.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1347 ( +34 or +2.59% ) GOLD has once again closed at the all important 1313 level. This is a very key level to watch this week. For a continued move higher we must now see this market break and close above 1356. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1365, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1371 and 1375. If momentum remains very strong, a blow-off move to 1393 cannot be ruled out. If Gold cannot close above 1356, we will look for a strong move back down into 1333-1335. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1322, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1303.
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