This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5715 ( -54 or -0.94% ) The ASX continues to stay in a sideways range however again found support last week at our key 5671 level. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX close above 5746, followed by a strong break above 5777. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 5823, and a strong close above this may result in a move to 5875. If momentum is strong we will then look for a rally into 5921 and 5925. If the ASX cannot hold above 5746, we are likely to see another retest of 5671. A close below this level may result in more selling into 5606 and if momentum is very strong 5582 cannot be ruled out..
EUROPE DAX – 12727 ( -31 or -0.24% ) Like the ASX the DAX continues to remain a tight narrow range. As we said last week our 12714 continues to play its role on a daily basis and with a big week of data this market is gearing up for a big move so GET READY . We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERT: German Ifo Business Climate on Monday, Draghi speaks Mon – Wed, German Prelim CPI on Thursday, German Retail Sales on Friday. For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12714. Should this occur we could see a strong move 13110, and if momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 13205. If the DAX fails to hold above 12714, we will look for a move back down to 12536. A strong break below this level is likely to see a push further down into 12384.
US SP500 – 2437 ( +4 or +0.16% ) S&P 2440 has again proved to be a dominant level and as such our levels and commentary remain unchanged this week. VOLATILITY ALERT: Core Durable Goods on Monday, CB Consumer Confidence and Yellen speaks on Tuesday, Pending Home Sales on Wednesday, Final GDP on Thursday, Chicago PMI on Friday. For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above our key level at 2418, followed by a strong break and close above 2440. Should this occur we anticipate further upside over the following week. Our next upside targets remain at 2465 and 2477. If we cannot hold above 2418, we will look for a move to retest strong support at 2400. A strong break below this level could see the S&P spike to 2392, and a close below this level could see this market trade 2386 by week’s end.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7569 ( -47 or -0.62% ) The Aussie Dollar failed to break through 0.7617 as mentioned last week and has since retraced back down to another key area. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . For a move higher we must now see this market close above 0.7617. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7677. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7729, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833. On the downside, we continue to watch 0.7617 for a retest, however a strong break below will likely result in a move back down to 0.7561. If momentum remains strong to the downside, we could quickly see 0.7489.
EUR/USD – 1.1192 ( -2 or -0.02% ) The EURO remains practically unchanged at a very big area and so our levels this week remain unchanged, however we will discuss this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . VOLATILITY ALERT: German Ifo Business Climate on Monday, Draghi speaks Mon – Wed, German Prelim CPI on Thursday, CPI Flash Estimate and German Retail Sales on Friday. For a sustained move higher we would now like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1201. Should this occur we will then look for a move to 1.1248 before a pause. However a strong break above this level could see a quick move into 1.1347. Should momentum remain strong to the upside, we cannot rule out a move into 1.1380 this week. If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1201, we will watch for a move back down to 1.1117. A break below this level could see this market trade quickly down 1.1083 cannot be ruled out; and if momentum remains very strong we could see a sharp move down to 1.1033 and 1.0977.
GBP/USD – 1.2718 ( -56 or -0.44% ) Like other currencies the Pound is also hovering around the key 1.2720 area and this will be crucial to watch this week. VOLATILITY ALERT: BoE Financial Stability Report followed by Carney speech on Tuesday & Wednesday, Current Account on Friday. For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above our key level of 1.2720, followed by a strong break through 1.2802. A strong break through this level could see the GBP/USD trade to 1.2868, and should momentum remain very strong we will look for a strong move back into 1.3035. On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2720, we could see the GBP/USD move back into 1.2510. A break below this level may result in a move to 1.2458, and further breaks to the downside may see a sharp move into 1.2297.
USD/JPY – 111.28 ( +42 or +0.38% ) The YEN was relatively muted last week and this week we will be watching this market closely for a breakout. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERT: BoJ Governor Kuroda speaking on Wednesday. For a continued move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 111.73, and a retest of the key level at 112.22. Should we break and close above 112.22 we could see a strong move into 113.87 – 114.08, and if momentum is very strong a move higher into 114.52 cannot be ruled out by week’s end. If we cannot hold above 111.09, the YEN may see further downside into a key area between 110.10 – 109.94. A strong break and close below 109.94 may result in further downside into 109.21, and if downside momentum is very strong this week 108.31 cannot be ruled out.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1256 ( +3 or +0.24% ) GOLD came right into our 1257 and this will again be one of the key areas to watch this week.. For a continued move higher we would like to see this market break strongly above 1257. Should this occur we will look for a move higher back into our key 1276 – 1278 area, and if momentum is very strong to the upside we could see a retest of 1294. If Gold cannot break above 1257, we will look for a move back down into 1247. A strong break below this level could see a move down into 1235, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1222.
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