This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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to avoid long delays. Enquire now INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6727 ( -65 or -0.96% ) The ASX was slightly weaker last week as it failed to remain above 6800. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 20:05 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Thu 11:30 – Private Capital Expenditure (quarterly) For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6682. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6804. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 7011. If the ASX cannot hold above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6635. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435. EUROPE DAX – 13189 ( -50 or -0.38% ) The DAX remains in a tight sideways consolidation and we are watching this market this week for a potential breakout. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Mon 20:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Thu 19:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly) For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX close above 13205, on its way to retesting 13388. A strong break and close above this level could see a fast move to 13520, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13697. If the DAX fails to close above 13205, we could see a move back down into 13050. A break below this level could mean a further move down into 12921, and if momentum is very strong we could see a fast move down to 12830. US SP500 – 3112 ( -7 or -0.22% ) The S&P was flat last week and as such our levels remain unchanged. NOTE: Friday is a holiday in the US (Thanksgiving Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence Thu 00:30 – Durable Goods Orders (monthly), Prelim GDP (quarterly) Thu 01:45 – Chicago PMI Thu 02:00 – Personal Spending (monthly) For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3100. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3140. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3159 and 3166. If we cannot hold above 3100, we could see this market retest 3066. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3020; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3003. FOREX AUD/USD – 0.6785 ( -36 or -0.53% ) The Aussie Dollar was also finished the week down and this week we look to see whether buyers can hold their ground. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 20:05 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Thu 11:30 – Private Capital Expenditure (quarterly) For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6800 on its way to retesting 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause. If the AUD cannot close above 0.6800, we will look for a move lower into 0.6762. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6692, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a move into 0.6598. EUR/USD – 1.1019 ( -33 or -0.3% ) The Euro finished off the week where it began (albeit slightly lower) despite ECB’s Lagarde’s best efforts to prop up Europe. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Fri 21:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual) For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249 if momentum remains strong. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0902 and 1.0814 by the week’s end. GBP/USD – 1.2828 ( -74 or -0.57% ) Cable is still in a large sideways consolidation. We will be discussing this consolidation in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.3161 – 1.3191. On the downside, should we fail to close above 1.2868, we will be watching the key level at 1.2720 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2480. USD/JPY – 108.64 ( -13 or -0.12% ) The $/YEN was very quiet last week as we discussed in LIVE TV. We are now watching this market very closely and will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 109.21, on its way to retesting 109.94 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.78 and 111.09. If we cannot close above 109.21, we could see a fast move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75 before a pause. Should we break lower however, we could see a strong move down into 107.36. COMMODITIES GOLD – 1462 ( -5 or -0.34% ) Gold also continues to trade back and forth in a narrow range and we are keeping a close eye on this market too. For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1450. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 1470; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1480 and 1505. If Gold cannot hold above 1450, we will look for a move back down into 1433. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1416, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1402. A detailed version of this market brief complete with additional analysis is available to existing Clients. 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