This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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SATURDAY 5TH DECEMBER 2015
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5254 ( + 264 or + 5.29% )
Last week we said “The thing to note is that we are now at the bottom of the Standard deviation channel. Look for a POP higher early.” and it did not disappoint.
The ASX bounced off the bottom of the Standard Deviation Channel to push higher. It continued for the rest of the week closing over 5% up.
For the upmove to continue strong we would like to see an early break back above 5270 reaching the area between 5312 – 30. Once this is reached we could see a move towards 5365. The next real test for the ASX will come at 5418 where we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close before reaching the area between 5440 – 62.
If the ASX has made its run and we see a downside move then the area between 5312 – 30 needs to hold as a strong level of resistance before another break back down past 5217 reaching 5150. If 5150 is broken then 5095 could be seen.
EUROPE
DAX – 11103 ( + 424 or + 3.97% )
The DAX opened lower after the weekend but then…..off like a rocket.
For the upmove to continue we would like to see 11080 hold as a strong level of support before a push past 11163 occurs. This could lead the DAX towards 11157 and possibly 11373. If the momentum continues strong then we could see a push past 11537 towards 11621. As the DAX tends to overextend its moves then we will also be watching for a move towards 11840.
For the down move to restart then the DAX will need to break past 11080 and 10941 early in the week reaching the key level of 10866. This level will then need to be broken with a long down bar before pushing towards 10793 and 10684.
US
S&P – 2091 ( + 74 or + 3.67% )
After a sharp move lower in the previous week our systems quickly reversed to NET long with a solid rally in the S&P.
For the upward move to continue and start another leg higher we would like to see 2101 broken early in the week reaching 2112. 2112 will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar before reaching the area between 2120 – 26. Once this occurs look for a test of the ATH’s @ 2135.
If the S&P cannot get past 2112 again then a push lower past 2076 could see a repeat of the previous week testing the key area between 2050 – 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7236 ( + 110 or + 1.54% )
After a slow start the AUD move higher for the week.
If the AUD is to take another leg higher we would like to see another strong break and close past 7297 before reaching 7330. Once this is broken then we could see an attempt at breaking 7407.
If the AUD cannot break past 7297 then a move back down past 7171 could see 7116 quickly. A strong break past 7116 will see the AUD near 7052 and possibly 6997.
EUR.USD – 10646 ( – 123 or – 1.14% )
The EUR is losing it’s appeal and the main reason is that the ECB is continuing QE and the FED is talking rate rise.
For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a move back up above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 – 10925.
For the EUR to take another leg down we would like to see a strong break past 10590 before reaching 10452. Once this occurs then 10283 will not be too far away.
GBP.USD – 15189 ( – 39 or – 0.26% )
The GBP rallied early in the week breaking past 15248 but then retraced the whole move and more the next day to close slightly lower for the week. Therefore comments remain the same:
For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see 15248 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15364 followed by 15456 with a possible push towards 15532.
For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15139. If this occurs then we see 14950 as being the next level reached before settling near 14812.
USD.JPY – 12277 ( + 17 or + 0.14% )
The USD tried to push through our key level of 12333 again, but struggled and came back down. Therefore comments remain the same:
For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.
For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1077 ( – 6 or – 0.55% )
GOLD has settled near the ows of July/August 2015. Lets see for how long. Therefore comments remain the same:
For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it settle around this area with a possible low of 1069. Once this occurs we could see a sideways move before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the down move is not finished and we see another leg down then we need to see a break past 1069. This could then lead the metal down to 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of reaching 1005.
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