This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week. Currently Trade View is light Net Short.
ASX – 4937
The ASX has bounced off 4902 again and is now sitting within 2 levels, 4902 and 5014.
The down move will play out if 4902 can be breached which should lead us down to our previous target of 4719.
For a new rally to continue we really need to see 5083 and 5126 broken in a solid move up.
FTSE – 6289
The FTSE started a leg down and got to a low of 6205 just 30 points of our target and has made a move back up towards 6307.
For the short term up move to continue we are looking at 6378 followed by 6434. If these levels are broken with strong momentum then a further move up is possible.
If the FTSE finds these levels as strong resistance then a move back down could play out and our previous target of 6175 and 6079 should be reached.
DAX – 7454
The DAX moved lower after trying to make a move up last week but found 7910 hard to break with a high of 7885. It has also slowed its move by finding short term support at 7435, which is the next level that needs to be broken for our next target of 7221 to be reached.
Note that the current down move is approaching a potential slowdown process.
If 7435 proves to be a level of good support then any move up could find resistance at 7586, but if broken with good momentum then 7811 could be a possible but ambitious target.
CAC – 3643
The down move took effect last week and reached a previous level of 3572 mentioned on 8th April and rebounded nicely off this level.
3733 should now act as potential resistance on the way up, but before this level can come into the picture our short term levels of 3669 and 3703 need to be broken.
On the way down if 3572 is broken then our first target is 3520 before we revise next targets.
SNP – 1553
The SNP is trying very hard to move down as all lagging indicators are trying to show.
The move down took effect but was stopped in its tracks by a support level (target level) of 1536 by reaching a low of 1535.
This could still occur this week if 1536 and 1524 are broken and then we could see 1500.
If the SPX is still undecided then maybe “Sell in May and go away” might become a reality.
A short term rebound to around 1566 is possible.
US Treasuries will be monitored to see the potential direction of this market in the coming weeks.
NASDAQ – 2777
The NASDAQ made a move lower and it was aggressive enough to reach our target of 2783 with a low of 2729.
Even though these moves are aggressive they tend to find support at some obscure levels.
With the current environment, if our levels are reached we like to move stops right up against the market to avoid getting caught on any moves back.
For the down move to continue its way back down then a short term level of 2757 will be watched.
AUD.USD – 10278
The AUD made a decent move down and broke some key levels especially 10353 which was of no help and just gave in this time around.
If this move continues down then 10182 could be reached.
Once again monitoring any bounce back up with 10353 acting as resistance.
EUR.USD – 13051
The EUR made a real effort trying to reach one of our upper targets of 13285 but found it difficult to get past 13201, which was surprising as the move was only halfway through its process.
The move back down has reached a previous level of support and resistance of 13083 and we would like this level held before we see another attempt at 13285.
If not, then a potential stronger level of support could be at 12927. These levels will be watched carefully throughout the week.
GBP.USD – 15229
Attempts at breaking the range of 15324 – 15352 showed no effect, so now the move back down is near our target level of 15185.
A break below 15185 could see 15066 reached and then if that is broken then an attempt at previous lows of 14831 could be a possibility.
In saying that, 15185 and 15066 could act as strong support levels.
USD.JPY – 9954
The JPY held a short term support of 9820 last week and then rallied towards 100. A rally through 100 could see 10136 reached a lot earlier than first thought.
Even though we see 100 broken we want to mention caution on the upside as anything is possible with this currency.
GOLD – 1403
GOLD’s slowdown has occurred and a potential new up move has started, but we are looking at this with caution.
We have a short term target of 1455, but this needs to be achieved early this week otherwise the momentum of the up move could slowdown quickly and test 1387 on the way down.
Last week we saw 1387 become a solid level which lead to the bounce that reached 1423
Once again be on your feet and think quick.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 8820
LIGHT CRUDE broke 9018 last week with real aggression. We thought that 8774 would hold it up, but the aggressive move was so intense that it reached a previous target of 8567 which was discussed on 18 March and then bounce back up to current levels.
Once again with the current environment if our levels are reached we like to move stops right up against the market to avoid getting caught on the moves back.
Short term levels to watch are 8860 on the upside and 8798 on the down side. Either break could occur this week.
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