This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
UPCOMING INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP 17th – 18th October 2015
This event is now FULL
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5085 ( – 8 or – 0.16% )
Once again the ASX struggled as soon as it touched reached near 5200.
As the ASX closed only a few points lower our comments remain the same.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5050 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking and closing past 5150 occurs. If the momentum continues strong then we could see 5217 reached. Once this occurs and we see a strong move then 5270 and 5319 are not out of the question.
If the ASX breaks down through 5050 again early in the week then the downward process could reach 4976 and 4922 very quickly. Once this level is broken the 4863 could be seen just as fast. If the downward momentum is strong then the lows of AUG and 4754 will play a pivotal role in deciding the next direction of the ASX. If this level is broken with strong momentum then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 9953 ( – 236 or – 2.32% )
It looks like the DAX copped most of the fallout from the FED decision as no rate cut could indicate further pressure on global markets is evident. On top of all this is the flood of refugees which will cause continued monetary pressure, money the EU does not have unless they print more. Are we seeing a new normal in the world?
For the upmove to restart the DAX needs to break back up above 10035 early in the week pushing towards 10146. Once this occurs then 10258 could once again slowdown the move. But if we see a solid break past 10258 then we could see the DAX extend towards 10473 very quickly.
If the DAX cannot get back above 10000 early in the week then we could see 9896 followed by 9829 finally reaching 9745 before taking its first breather. Once this level is reached and if the momentum continues strong then 9672 and 9589 might provide some resistance, if they don’t then we could be in another FREE FALL scenario. If this occurs then we will discuss downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 1958 ( – 4 or – 0.20% )
The S&P pushed higher early in week and continued after the FED decision to keep rates low
by reaching a high of 2021, but then the sell off started and it closed only a few points below last week’s close.
I know people laugh at this guy but he has some VERY interesting points. I think it’s best you judge for yourself:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWdE8xlTr2g
As the S&P closed only a few points lower our comments remain the same.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see the area between 1947 – 57 hold as a strong level of support before pushing back past the area between 1981 – 90. If the momentum is strong then 2010 here we come. If the S&P overextends then 2046 will be the next pivotal level to be watched.
If the S&P fails to stay above the area between 1957 – 47 and we see an early break down reaching 1927 then we could see a bit of a strong push back down towards 1901. Breaks past this level could see 1882 quickly followed by 1869, 1857 and finally a test of the AUG 2015 low of 1834. If 1834 is also broken then we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7189 ( + 99 or + 1.40% )
The AUD continued to power ahead.
If the AUD is to continue its move higher then we would like to see 7116 become a solid level of support before another attempt at closing above 7263 can occur. Once this occurs then 7330 would complete the upside range.
If the AUD break back down past 7116 then we would see it retrace back down to 6957. If this level does not hold then we would look for a move down towards 6809 and 6761.
EUR.USD – 11298 ( – 37 or – 0.33% )
“psst – To Mario Draghi, If you want the Euro to go down you need to act”
oops – Janet beat you to it.
After an early spike the EUR closed slightly lower therefore our comments remain the same.
If the EUR continues its strength this week then we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past 11395 before reaching 11427 and 11471. If the upward momentum is strong then 11666 and 11732 are not out of the question.
For the downward move to really kick into play then we would like to see a strong break and close past 11166 early in the week before reaching 11038 quickly. A break through 11038 could see our downside FICM level of 10925.
GBP.USD – 15521 ( + 94 or + 0.61% )
After a slow start the GBP followed the rest of the majors moving higher against the USD.
For the GBP to continue it move higher we would like to see 15533 hold as a strong level of support before another push is made to break and close past 15549, 15591 and 15644. Once this occurs then we could see 15719 – 45 which would complete the upside range.
For the down move to restart we would like to see a strong early break back down past 15456 before another attempt at breaking past 15366 is made. Once this occurs then we could see 15280 and the pair could then settle down near 15250.
USD.JPY – 11998 ( – 60 or – 0.50% )
Last week we said
“It is an Interesting time for the FED as it is caught between a rock and a hard place”
Raise rates – risk of complete market meltdown
Keep rates on hold – high possibility of (dare I say it) QE4?
So now the FED has kept rates on hold, markets moved lower, What next?
ONCE AGAIN – Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past
12064 before moving towards 12151. Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1139 ( + 32 or + 2.89% )
“It looks like we need a market meltdown for GOLD to rally. (Safe haven Play)”
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see 1134 hold as strong support before reaching 1149 again. Once this occurs then the area between 1161 – 67 will play a major role is allowing a push high towards 1178.
For GOLD to reverse and come back down we would like to see a strong break and close past 1134 before a strong move down towards 1103 occurs. This could then lead to 1091 and possibly 1069.
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