This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES ASX – 5948 ( -88 or -1.46% ) The ASX struggled to hold above 6000 last week and the question this week will again be whether we can hold above this level. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Wed 11:30 – Construction Work (quarterly) For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6000. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 6070, and if momentum is very strong a move to 6140 is very possible this week. If the ASX cannot hold above 6000, we could see a move back down to 5921. A break below this may result in a retest of 5875, and if momentum to the downside continues we will look for a sell-off into 5823 before a pause.
EUROPE DAX – 12969 ( -150 or -1.14% ) The sold off for the second straight week before finding support on Wednesday at some very key levels. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 01:00 – ECB President Draghi Testifies Thu 19:30 – Flash Services PMI Thu 19:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI Thu 23:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close and hold above 13050. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13205, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13388. If the DAX fails to close above 13050 , we may see a push lower back into the key level of 12921. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12870; however if momentum is very strong and we break through 12830 we could see a strong sell-off into 12714.
US SP500 – 2576 ( -5 or -0.19% ) The S&P spent the majority of last week in a sideways range and this week is setting up to be a key inflection point. We will be discussing this in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week. NOTE: Friday is a holiday in the US (Thanksgiving Day) VOLATILITY ALERTS: Wed 02:00 – Existing Home Sales Wed 10:00 – FED Chair Janet Yellen Speaks Thu 00:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly) Thu 02:00 – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Thu 06:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2574. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 2590. If momentum is very strong and we break through 2590 easily, we cannot rule out a fast move to 2628. If we cannot hold above 2574, we will look for a move back down to 2562. A break below this may likely see a retest of 2550 and 2540, and if momentum is very strong on the downside we could see a sell-off into 2524.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7564 ( -94 or -1.23% ) The Aussie Dollar has also come into key levels we discussed last week. Are we seeing an important low being made? We will be discussing this market and the key scenarios this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Tue 20:05 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks Wed 11:30 – Construction Work (quarterly) For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7561 followed by a close above 0.7617. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7677. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7729, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833. Should the Aussie Dollar fail to hold above 0.7561, a strong break below 0.7535 could see this market head to 0.7489 before a pause. If momentum to the downside continues, we will look for a move to 0.7447 before the end of the week. EUR/USD – 1.1789 ( +126 or +1.08% ) The EURO was rallied strongly last week amidst concerns of a flattening yield curve; again stopping right at our key level of 1.1834. This is the level to watch this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 21:00 – Flash GDP (quarterly) Tue 21:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks Thu 21:00 – Final CPI (annual) Fri 19:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break and close above 1.1834. A strong close above this level may result in another retest of 1.1937, and if momentum is very strong all eyes will be on the big 1.2000 handle before another pause. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1834, we will look for a move back down into 1.1738. A strong close below this level could see the Euro test 1.1678; and should we break lower we may see a move into 1.1613 very quickly. A strong break and close below 1.1613 could a see sharp move lower into 1.1496. GBP/USD – 1.3216 ( +28 or +0.21% ) Cable remains in a sideways range so our comments and levels from last week have not changed. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 21:00 – Inflation Report Hearings Wed 23:30 – Autumn Forecast Statement Thu 20:30 – GDP – Second Estimate (quarterly) Thu 20:30 – Prelim Business Investment
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable break and close back above 1.3277. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3309 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3534.
If we cannot break above 1.3277, we will look for a retest of 1.3035. A break below this level could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868, and should the downside momentum continue we will look for a move to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 112.14 ( -137 or -1.21% ) The $/YEN is fast approaching the key 111.73 area and like other markets this is a key week for both the $US and the YEN. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . NOTE: Thursday is a holiday in Japan (Labour Thanksgiving Day) For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.73. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 112.68 before another pause. However a strong break and close above this level could see the YEN rally strongly into 113.87. If we cannot hold above 111.73, we are likely to see a retest of 111.09. A strong break and close below this level could result in a move back down to 110.45, and if momentum to the downside is very strong we may see a very sharp move down into 109.94.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1294 ( +19 or +1.49% ) Gold has broken out to the upside closing at 1294 for the week. Has a week long rally begun or reversal imminent? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL . For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1294 followed by a move into 1303. A strong break past this level could see a move into 1313; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move into 1322. If Gold cannot close above 1294, we we will look for a strong move back down into 1278-1276. A break below this level could see a quick test of 1266 however should this level break we are likely to see 1257 very quickly.
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