This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7108 ( +230 or +3.34% )
The ASX has finally reached all time highs and this market may have plenty of more room to travel higher. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Numbers
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX holdabove 7062. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 7144. A strong break of this level could see the ASX rally into 7192, and if momentum remains very strong we may see a move into 7286.
If the ASX cannot hold above 7062, we will look for a move back down to 7011. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6850 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6720.
EUROPE
DAX – 13537 ( +81 or +0.6% )
The DAX is again pushing up against all time highs and we are again watching this market very closely.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate
Thu 00:30 – ECB Press Conference
Fri 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
Fri 20:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX hold above 13520. Should this occur we may see a fast move to 13697, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13787 and 13819.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13520, we could see a move back down into 13388. A break below this level could mean a further move down into 13205, and if momentum is very strong we could see a fast move down to 13050.
US
SP500 – 3323 ( +61 or +1.87% )
The S&P remains very strong as the bulls continue to charge higher. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Day
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sat 01:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above above 3338. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3396 before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3450 and 3500!
If we cannot close above 3338, we could see this market move lower into 3274. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3248; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3208 and 3116.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6873 ( -26 or -0.38% )
The Aussie Dollar is still range bound in what was a very narrow range last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Numbers
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6800. A break of this level sets the stage for a move down to 0.6762; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a move into 0.6692.
EUR/USD – 1.1089 ( -32 or -0.29% )
Like the Aussie Dollar, the EURO is also range bound and our comments from last week remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:45 – ECB Interest Rate
Thu 00:30 – ECB Press Conference
Fri 20:00 – Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
Fri 20:30 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1117; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.1249 if momentum remains strong.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1117, we could see a move back down into 1.1033. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0977, and any further weakness may result in a much bigger move down to 1.0902.
GBP/USD – 1.3006 ( -54 or -0.41% )
Cable is now gearing up for a very important two weeks and this market is to be watched closely. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 20:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable close above 1.3110. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1.3277; and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a break of the key resistance at 1.3386.
If Cable cannot close above 1.3110, we could see this market trade into 1.3035. A break of this level could see a quick move into 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a further move lower into 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 110.16 ( +67 or +0.61% )
The $/YEN has broken the 110 level (albeit only just) as we head into another crucial week for the short-term bulls..
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 12:30 – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.94. Should this occur we will look for a move into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.78 and 111.09.
If we cannot hold above 109.94, we could see a move lower into 109.21. A break below this level may result in a retest of 108.31; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move and full fade into 107.75 before a pause.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1557 ( -5 or -0.32% )
Gold spent the majority of last week consolidating and all eyes will be on this market this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1525, on its way to retesting 1574. A break and close above this level sets the stage for a move to 1605; and if momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 1620.
If Gold cannot hold above 1525, we will look for a sharp move back down to 1504. This is a pivotal area; and any break below this level sets the stage for a much larger move down to 1485, 1474 and potentially 1460.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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