This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
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INDICES AUSTRALASIA ASX – 6367 ( +91 or +1.45% ) The ASX has broken out to new multi year highs. Can this market continue to break higher? VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly) For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6345. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6440, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6520. If the ASX cannot close above 6345,we will look for a move back down to 6276 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6206, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6140.
EUROPE DAX – 12234 ( -178 or -1.43% ) The DAX is now at a very key double bottom area. We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 02:00 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Tue 17:30 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Thu 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI Thu 17:30 – German Flash Services PMI For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12384 followed by a move into 12566. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830. If the DAX fails to close and hold above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044. US SP500 – 2851 ( +13 or +0.46% ) The S&P finished off the slightly higher; and with a quiet week scheduled we will look to sentiment for where this market moves to from here. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Thu 00:00 – Existing Home Sales Fri 20:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly) Sat 00:00 – Fed Chair Powell Speaks For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2840. Should this occur the stage is set for a retest of 2870 and any break above this level could see new all-time highs into 2902. If we cannot hold above 2840, we will look for a move back down to 2808. A break below this level may result in another quick move down into 2794 and 2785; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2760.
FOREX AUD/USD – 0.7315 ( +21 or +0.29% ) The Aussie Dollar has also put in an important bottom. Can the bulls maintain this low? We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM . VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly) For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7282, followed by a retest and close above 0.7364. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7447 before a pause; and if momentum remains very strong we will look for a big move into 0.7489. If we cannot close above 0.7282, we will look for a move back down to 0.7364. A strong break below this level may result in a move down into 0.7229 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7169 and 0.7112.
EUR/USD – 1.1438 ( +29 or +0.25% ) Like the Aussie dollar the Euro has also put in an important bottom again at one of our key levels. 1.1347 is the big downside area to watch this week. VOLATILITY ALERTS: Tue 02:00 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks Thu 18:00 – Euro Area Flash Manufacturing PMI Thu 18:00 – Euro Area Flash Services PMI Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close and hold above 1.1453 this week. Should this occur we could see a quick move into 1.1496 before another pause. A strong break above 1.1496 could then result in a fast move back up to to 1.1613. If the EURO cannot close above 1.1453, we could see a fast move down into 1.1347. A break below level however could be followed by another sharp move down into 1.1249; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1197. GBP/USD – 1.2750 ( -21 or -0.16% ) Continued weakness in the Pound makes it difficult for this market to find buyers. For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above our key level of 1.2720. A strong break through this level could see the GBP/USD trade back up to 1.2868, and should momentum remain very strong we will look for a strong move back into 1.3035. On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2720, we could see the GBP/USD move back into 1.2510. A break below this level may result in a move to 1.2458, and further breaks to the downside may see a sharp move into 1.2297.
USD/JPY – 110.50 ( -41 or -0.37% ) Our comments from last week remain the same: “They $/YEN continues to try and form a base at the key 110.50 area having fully faded the BoJ’s comments a fortnight ago.” For a move to the upside we must now see this market close strongly through 111.09. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out. If we cannot close above 111.09, we will look for a quick retest of 109.94. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.21, and if the downside remains strong we could see a strong sell-off into 108.31.
COMMODITIES GOLD – 1184 ( -27 or -2.23% ) GOLD has put in a very interesting reversal and this week will be a very important test for the bulls. For a move higher we would like to see this market close above 1216 and 1222. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1238. A close above this level may likely see a further move to the upside into 1247 before a pause. Should momentum remain very strong, we could see a fast move into 1260. If Gold cannot close above 1222, we could see another quick decline into 1206. Any subsequent breaks of this level may result in further downside into 1194, and if momentum to the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a move into 1187.
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