This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5827 ( – 153 or – 2.56% )
The ASX struggled again last week and it fell away late in the week with the rest of the markets. Are we now seeing the triple top formation?
For the ASX to continue back higher we would like to see an early break back past 5842 and 5892. Once this occurs with strong momentum we could see 5998 tested again. The break could then create strong momentum pushing through to 6108.
If Friday’s move was the start of something bigger then we would like to see an old KEY FICM level of 5790 broken with a long down bar. Once this occurs then 5790 comes back into play and the only way we see this level broken is with strong momentum and a further long down bar. As mentioned previously “we still see 5790 playing an important role in the direction of this market” If the break does occur the next levels we will be watching are 5754, 5715 and if the move is strong then an extension towards 5636 is not out of the question.
EUROPE
DAX – 11669 ( – 715 or – 5.77% )
Oops, this market really does not like uncertainty.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see 11791 broken early in the week followed by 11897 and 11984. If the momentum continues strong past these levels then 12164 could be seen.
If a down move last week continues this week then we would like to see a strong long down bar break past 11621. If this occurs we could see the DAX move lower very quickly reaching the area between 11292 – 57.
US
S&P – 2083 ( – 19 or – 0.90% )
2112 is becoming the level of the 2015 so far as breaking it seems to be difficult for now. The S&P moved aggressively lower after touching it again.
For the S&P to continue higher we would like to see an early break and close past 2085. Once this occurs then we could see 2101 reached. The momentum will then need to remain very strong as 2112 will come back into play. A strong break past this level could see 2120 – 26.
For the down move to continue then we would like to see another strong break past 2076 before testing the area between 2050 – 46 again.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7782 ( + 106 or + 1.38% )
Last week saw the AUD break through 7718 with a long up bar with strong momentum. The key now is will it continue?
For the up move to continue we would like to see 7718 become a strong level of support before a strong push to reach 7927. The only way we see 8088 is by a strong short squeeze.
For the longer term downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7718 moving towards 7494. Once this occurs we could see 7407 and if the momentum is strong then 7263 could be seen.
EUR.USD – 10806 ( + 189 or + 1.78% )
The EUR is now finding some support near the 105 area where we saw a nice bounce for the week.
For the EUR to make a move higher we would like to see 10780 now become a strong level of support before we see a long up bar reaching 10899. This momentum could lead us back to 110.
For the longer term downleg to continue would like to see an early break back down past 10780. If the momentum is strong we could see 10590 again and then a possible test of 10452.
GBP.USD – 14960 ( + 329 or + 2.25% )
After a strong move down the previous week we saw the GBP bounce off 14563 (mentioned last week) moving higher by over 2%.
For the GBP to continue higher we now need to see 14950 become a strong level of support before a strong push towards 15140 is made. Once this occurs then we could see 15209.
For the down move to restart and take another strong leg down then we would like to see an early strong break back past 14950. This could then lead the pair down towards 14832. If the move is strong then 14563 could be seen again.
USD.JPY – 11892 ( – 127 or – 1.06% )
Volatility here we come. Another Volatile week for this pair, chop, chop, chop bouncing between our two FICM levels of 12064 (upside) and 11867 (downside).
For the USD to continue its long term rally we would like to see a strong long up bar break through 11931 early in the week followed by a continuous break past the area between 11991 – 12017 before a new attempt at breaking our key FICM level of 12064 is made. If the break is strong and has momentum then we could see 12184 and possibly 12275.
If the USDJPY restarts back lower then we would like to see strong early break and close past our key FICM level of 11867 before further downside breaks are made. If this is done with strong downward momentum then we could see 11813, 11784 down to 11763 were it would complete the range set in March.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1204 ( – 3 or – 0.25% )
Last week GOLD moved sideways therefore we are going to maintain our comments from previous weeks: In the previous weeks brief we said “One note of caution, if the rate rise does not occur and the wording by the FED changes, be ready for a sharp reversal in many instruments, GOLD will be one of them.”
For the upward move to continue we would like to see another strong up bar break past 1208 before pushing through 1216 and 1226. Once this occurs then we could see 1241 and a possible extension reaching 1252 which would complete the range set back in Oct 2013.
For the down move GOLD will need to break an important level between 1178 – 80. If this occurs with a long down bar then it could continue down towards 1167 and settling near 1149 again.
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