This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
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SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK’S MARKET BRIEF
#ASX reached a low of 5153 which was only 3 points higher than our FICM level of 5150.
#DAX reached a low of 9888 which was only 8 points lower than our level of 9896.
#SPX closed at 2034 which was only 1 point above our level of 2033.
#AUDUSD closed at 7331 which was only 1 point above our level of 7330.
#GBPUSD reached a high of 15383 which was only 21 points higher than our level of 15364
#GOLD closed at 1176 which was only 2 points lower than our FICM level of 1178.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5290 ( + 25 or + 0.47% )
After an early move lower the ASX bounced off our FICM Level of 5150 to close slightly higher for the week. Therefore our comments remain the same:
For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see a strong break and close past 5319 early in the week. Once this occurs we could see 5366. Once this level is broken then we could see the ASX push up towards 5418 and finally settling near the area between 5441 – 62.
If the ASX cannot get past 5319 and a down move starts then a break through 5217 could see 5150 very quickly. If 5150 cannot hold up then we would like to see a strong long down bar break reaching 5095 and finally 5050. If the downward momentum is strong then we could see the ASX near 4976 again.
EUROPE
DAX – 10121 ( + 8 or + 0.08% )
After an early drop reaching 9888 which was only 8 points lower than our level of 9896 the DAX recovered to close only slightly higher. Therefore our comments remain the same:
For the upmove to continue into this week we would like to see 10145 broken early reaching 10258. Once this level is broken we could see 10319. If the momentum is strong then a possible extension towards 10389 could occur which would complete the range set back in July.
If the down move restarts then we would like to see a strong long down bar break past the area between 10075 – 33. Once this occurs the DAX could get down to 9896 quickly. If the downward momentum continues then look out for 9829 and finally 9742.
US
S&P – 2034 ( + 20 or + 0.99% )
And there we have it, a nice early reversal down before another move higher. This week will be an Interesting week to see if the S&P can rally past the 2046 – 50 area which was the premise for the collapse in AUG this year
For the upward move to continue we would like to see 2010 become a strong support level before pushing towards the area between 2046 – 50. This level will then need to be broken with a long up bar reaching 2076. If the momentum is strong then 2101 and possibly 2112 could be seen.
If the S&P fails to stay above 2010 and we see a long down bar break and close past it early in the week then 1990 and 1981 could be quickly seen. Once these levels are broken then we are back down near the area between 1957 – 47.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7264 ( – 67 or – 0.91% )
The AUD took a breather closing lower for the week near the highs 19 Sept 2015.
If the AUD is to restart its move higher we would like to see another strong break and close past 7330 before making an attempt at breaking 7407. Once this level is broken then 7494 will come into play, as if it too is broken then 7635 is the next level.
Now that the range has been completed an early break past 7230 could trigger falls past 7177 and 7116 quickly. A strong break past 7116 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUR.USD – 11347 ( – 11 or – 0.10% )
The EURO really struggling to get past 115 again closing only a few points lower. Therefore our comments remain the same.
If the EUR continues higher we would like to see an early long up bar break and close past 11395 before pushing towards 11427 and 11471. Once this occurs then we could see a strong rally into 11666.
If the EUR cannot break past 11395 then a down move could be seen if 11315 is broken. Once this occurs then we could see 11166 and finally 11038.
GBP.USD – 15436 ( + 119 or + 0.78% )
After an early move lower the GBP catapulted higher on Wednesday with rumours that the BOE might raise rates sooner. This was then confirmed early Friday by MS Forbes saying that the BOW would look to raise rates sooner rather than later.
For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see an early break and close past our FICM level of 15458 before reaching 15533. If the upward momentum continues strong then we will be looking for the pair to reach 15591 before settling near 15644.
For the down move to restart then 15458 needs to become a solid level of resistance followed y a leg down through 15366. Once this level is broken we could see 15280 stand aside as the GBP reaches 15250.
USD.JPY – 11944 ( – 76 or – 0.63% )
“Something tells me we have seen this pattern before?
As the USD.JPY has not moved much, our comments remain the same:
Watch for the break. The two levels we are watching are: 12151 Upside, 11867 Downside.
ONCE AGAIN – Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.”
For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past 12064 before moving towards 12151. Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332
For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1176 ( + 20 or + 1.73% )
Another strong rally by GOLD last week may indicate a weaker USD. The Big question still remains – will the FED raise rates this year? If they don’t then maybe we are in deeper than expected.
For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see an early strong break and close past our FICM level of 1178. If the upward momentum is strong we could see GOLD near 1187 and 1197 with the possibility of seeing a 1200 print with the possible extension towards 1216
For GOLD to reverse and come back down we would like to see 1178 become a strong level of resistance before another break down past the area between 1161 – 67. Once this occurs then a leg back down past 1149 could see 1141 and 1134 quickly before pushing past 1123 and 1111 reaching 1103.
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