This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
For a more detailed day-to-day overview of the markets and trade opportunities get monthly access for only $69.95
CLICK HERE TO JOIN
We may take multiple trades throughout the week. We discuss this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
UPCOMING EVENTS
INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP
Our In-house Intermediate Workshops are now in high demand. Inquire now to avoid long delays.
APRIL 2018 – limited seats only!
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5978 ( -30 or -0.50% )
The ASX continued its sideways consolidation last week as we head into a key week for the Australian market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5985. Should this occur we will look for a move to 6070, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move back up into 6140.
If the ASX cannot close above 5985, we will look for a move back down to 5921. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5823, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move down to 5777.
EUROPE
DAX – 12392 ( +20 or +0.16% )
Like the ASX, the DAX also spent finished the week where it started having only managed to close 20 points higher. Will we see a a breakout this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Econominc Sentiment
Thu 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Thu 19:30 – German Flash Services PMI
Thu 20:00 – German IFO Business Climate
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12384. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 12566. A strong break of this level could then see the DAX rally quickly to 12714.
If the DAX fails to close above 12384, we will look for a move back down to 12115. Below this we could see a move into 11875, and should the DAX continue to sell off we cannot rule out a move into key support between 11790 – 11755.
US
SP500 – 2750 ( -33 or -1.19% )
The S&P is at a critical level as we enter this important week. We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:30 – Current Account
Thu 01:00 – Existing Home Sales
Thu 05:00 – FOMC Interest Rate – LIVE TV
Thu 05:30 – FOMC Press Conference – LIVE TV
Fri 23:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2736. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 2808. A strong break and close above this level could see the S&P rally quickly into 2850, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2870.
If we cannot hold above 2736, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2694 and 2688 before a pause. A break below this level however could mean this market retraces lower into 2660; and a complete reversal to the downside could see this market fall further into 2638.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7710 ( -135 or -1.72% )
Thursday and Friday saw two days of aggressive selling as the Aussie dollar closed poorly last week. We will discuss the impact of this again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Monetary Policy Minutes
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move higher we must now see this market close back above 0.7729; followed by a retest of 0.7833.Should this occur we will look for this market to retest 0.7903; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move back up to 0.7988 and 0.8033.
If we cannot close above 0.7729, we are likely to see a move lower into 0.7662. Should the downside momentum continue we could see a quick move into 0.7620; and if selling pressure is strong a move into 0.7600 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.2287 ( -18 or -0.15% )
The EURO also finished off the week where we started. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 20:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI
Thu 20:00 – Flash Services PMI
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.2266 followed by a strong break through 1.2360. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to test 1.2420; and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2520.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.2266, we could see a move back down 1.2165 before a pause. This is an important level and any subsequent strong break and close below this level may see the EURO sell-off further into 1.2042 this week.
GBP/USD – 1.3941 ( +92 or +0.66% )
The Pound has found support at 1.3800 but has been unable to break through the key 1.4000 level. Will we see a break this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – CPI (annual)
Wed 20:30 – Unemployment Rate
Thu 20:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
For a move to the upside we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3875. A hold above this level may result in moves into 1.4075 and 1.4194. Should momentum remain strong to the upside, we could see a move into 1.4223 by the week’s end.
If we cannot hold above 1.3875 we could see a quick move down into 1.3743 – 1.3725 before a pause. A continued sell-off may see another move lower into 1.3683 and 1.3654, with a strong break below these levels meaning cable may trade down into 1.3534. If momentum continues to remain strong, we could see a sharp decline to 1.3277.
USD/JPY – 105.99 ( -82 or -0.77% )
The $/YEN is also trying to find some support at these levels. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT.
For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the market break above 106.30 followed by a close above 107.36. Should this occur we will then be looking for a quick move into 107.75. A strong break and close above 107.75 could then see a quick move into 108.31 before a pause. If momentum is very strong this week, we cannot rule out a move to 109.21 by the end of the week.
If however the USD/JPY cannot break above 106.30 and fails at 105.79, a break below could see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 104.97 before a potential pause. Should we continue to trade lower and see continued downside pressure on the USD/JPY- a sharp move to 103.99 is possible.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1313 ( -10 or -0.76% )
GOLD has once again closed at the all important 1313 level. This is a very key level to watch this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1313, followed by a break and close above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1355, and a close above this level could see further upside into 1365. If momentum remains very strong, a very strong move into 1374.
If Gold cannot hold above 1313, we will look for a strong move back down into the key 1303 level. A strong break below this level could see GOLD sell off further into 1294, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a sharp move down into 1280.
A detailed version of this brief complete with additional analysis is available to existing Clients.
If you are an existing client please Log In.
If you are not a member, sign up to our member portal now for only $69.95!
DISCLAIMER
The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.
This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.
